5 big NFL unknowns on the Dallas Cowboys’ 2026 schedule that could shape their final win-loss record

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 NFL season with a tough schedule. But it could get harder or easier depending on how these major unknowns break out.

Mauricio Rodriguez Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Jan 4, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Kavontae Turpin (9) returns a kickoff as New York Giants punter Jamie Gillan (12) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium.
Jan 4, 2026; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Kavontae Turpin (9) returns a kickoff as New York Giants punter Jamie Gillan (12) pursues during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The Dallas Cowboys face a challenging 2026 NFL schedule, and their path back to the postseason runs through a gauntlet of opponents surrounded by uncertainty. From NFC East rivals retooling their rosters to AFC powerhouses sorting out coaching changes, there’s a lot of mysteries on the Cowboys schedule. 

This is more about the Cowboys opponents’ than themselves. Not every question has an answer right now, and that’s precisely what makes this exercise worthwhile  Let’s dive in.

How quickly do the New York Giants improve?

The Giants are widely seen as one of the NFL’s top worst-to-first candidates. In 20 of the last 23 seasons, at least one team has gone from last place to a division title. Most recently, the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots did it in 2025. New York has the ingredients to follow suit.

New Giants head coach John Harbaugh has made it clear his intention is to win immediately, and his resume backs up the confidence. The division rival’s roster is also much stronger than Cowboys fans may suspect. The defense features a terrifying pass-rush trio of Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and Kayvon Thibodeaux. And that’s without counting first-round rookie linebacker Arvell Reese, who is expected to take on some edge-rushing snaps alongside his primary linebacker role. 

As for the offense, Quarterback Jaxson Dart played decent football as a rookie, and if wide receiver Malik Nabers stays healthy, Dart will have a tier-A target at his disposal. Cam Skattebo provides a solid running back option, too. 

The Giants still carry plenty of question marks, but if they click early, they could be a tough out. The Cowboys face them in Week 1 and again in Week 17. That opener will tell us a lot about both teams.

Do the Jesse Minter Baltimore Ravens miss a beat?

Minter inherits one of the best quarterbacks in football in Lamar Jackson, a playmaker in Zay Flowers, and a solid offensive line even after losing Tyler Linderbaum. He also brought in 30-year-old offensive coordinator Declan Doyle, who called plays for Ben Johnson’s Chicago Bears offense in 2025 and has experience in Sean Payton’s system.

On defense, Anthony Weaver returns to Baltimore. This time as defensive coordinator, and he gets to coach a unit that added star pass rusher Trey Hendrickson. Still, Baltimore is banking on the same defensive core being healthier, and that’s never a guarantee.

The Cowboys face Baltimore in Week 3. Given how tight the NFC East race is expected to be, a loss there could prove costly for Dallas.

Do the Philadelphia Eagles have a good passing offense?

Jalen Hurts has two Super Bowl appearances and a ring, but the Eagles’ offense has grown predictable. Philadelphia loves to run the football relentlessly and then take shots down the sideline when defenses load the box. AJ Brown thrived in those one-on-one opportunities but he’s long gone after the Eagles traded him to the Patriots. 

The Eagles added talent to the wide receiver room, but it’s fair to wonder if the passing attack will function the same way. Hurts has a lot to prove as a passer for that to be the case. Specifically, he must show he can attack the intermediate areas of the field with more consistency. If it doesn’t, can their defense alone carry Philadelphia to the division title? Can it beat the Cowboys twice? Dallas faces the Eagles in Week 7 and Week 12, and whether new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion can make things click remains one of the NFC East’s biggest unknowns.

Is Aaron Donald coming back to the LA Rams?

Los Angeles already acquired Myles Garrett in a blockbuster trade. That alone makes the Rams one of the scariest teams in the NFL. But rumors continue to swirl about Aaron Donald returning for one more Super Bowl run, especially with the game being played at SoFi Stadium this February. Will they come true?

Donald is 35, but he didn’t walk away because of decline. If he prepares himself and commits to a comeback, he can still play at a high level. No one around the league appears ready to rule it out. 

The Cowboys visit the Rams in Week 15. Facing Garrett is already a handful. Adding Donald on the other side of the defensive line would be a nightmare scenario for any offensive line.

Is Texans QB CJ Stroud going to bounce back?

The Cowboys visit the Houston Texans in Week 4, right before a bye week. A slow start could put Dallas in a difficult position early. And this is a team likely to be overrated by the casual fan. That would be a mistake. 

Stroud broke records as a rookie and looked like a future top-10 quarterback at the time as he finished . He hasn’t been the same, though. From 2024-2025, he 29th in adjusted EPA/play, per RBSDM. Now Houston has offensive coordinator Nick Caley entering his second year working with Stroud after taking over the offense in 2025. On defense, the Texans remain loaded with Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Azeez Al-Shaair, and Derek Stingley Jr.

Here’s the scary part: Houston won 12 games with the 22nd-ranked offense in the league in 2025. Imagine what happens if Stroud returns to his rookie form.

For now, we wait. The Cowboys’ 2026 season will be shaped as much by what happens around the league as by what happens inside their own building. And if these unknowns break the wrong way, Dallas could be staring at one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.