The Philadelphia Eagles edge rusher Nolan Smith Jr. landed as ESPN’s breakout candidate for the 2026 season, but the framing might undersell what’s actually at stake. Ben Solak at ESPN released his list of one breakout candidate for all 32 NFL teams, and for Philadelphia, he went with Smith. The reasoning is interesting, but I think the reality of this situation goes deeper than a simple “breakout” label.

Solak’s case for Smith centers on the numbers. On a snap-by-snap basis, Smith is right there with Jalyx Hunt. He posted a 16.3% pressure rate compared to Hunt’s 17.3%, and Smith’s 4.7% quick pressure rate actually edged out Hunt’s 4.3% mark. Solak also pointed to Smith’s rare physical profile, calling him “preposterously powerful in run defense” at 6-foot-2, 238 pounds, giving him more viability on early downs than Hunt. Both are solid candidates, but Solak weighed Smith’s physical traits a little heavier than Hunt’s toolbox.

The ‘breakout’ label doesn’t quite fit

Here’s where I push back a little on the framing. Nolan Smith already had his breakout. A couple of years ago, Smith racked up four sacks during the postseason run en route to the Super Bowl. He was one of the best players on that defense, and he finished the regular season with 6.5 sacks. That was the breakout. We saw what this kid could do when healthy and locked in.

The problem is that Smith never got right last season. He injured his triceps in the Super Bowl, came back, re-injured it in camp and early in the regular season, and played only 12 games. He landed on IR. He was never at full strength. So I understand the logic of projecting a bounce-back, but calling it a “breakout” feels like it ignores what he already showed us.

This is a make-or-break year

The more accurate label for Smith’s 2026 is make-or-break, and there are a couple of layers to that.

First, the contract situation. The Eagles picked up Smith’s fifth-year option. He wants to be an integral part of this defense for the long haul, and Howie Roseman is going to have some fascinating decisions to make about who to pay on that side of the ball. Jalen Carter still hasn’t gotten his extension. Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean are coming up next year. The Eagles can’t pay everybody, and Smith needs to prove he’s worth prioritizing in that group.

Second, the roster construction is telling. Philadelphia went out and traded for Jonathan Greenard this offseason. That move didn’t happen in a vacuum. The Eagles lost Jaelan Phillips in free agency, but they also needed more edge rusher depth because Smith missed time with that triceps injury and because Hunt took a while to get going before heating up later in the season. The front office wasn’t just replacing Phillips. They were hedging against uncertainty at the position.

So now Smith lines up opposite Greenard with a chance to show he’s a foundational piece of this defense. Even if he doesn’t rack up double-digit sacks, his physicality in the run game and his ability to generate consistent pressure make him valuable. He’s only 25 years old, and he plays with an elite level of aggression despite being undersized for the position.

But this is the point in a career where every factor gets weighed. If Smith can’t stay healthy and produce at a top 10 or top 15 level at the position, the Eagles have tough decisions to make. We all know how Roseman operates. He’s always running through that cycle: When do I draft the replacement? Do I keep the guy? Do I pay him? That calculus doesn’t stop just because you like a player.

Don’t sleep on Jalyx Hunt either

I also think Hunt could have easily been the pick here. He started to get hot later in the season, and there’s a real argument that his trajectory is pointing up. Both guys have legitimate cases, and honestly, the Eagles could get strong production from both opposite Greenard. That would be the best-case scenario for a defense that already has the pieces to be dominant.

But when it comes to Smith specifically, the stakes are higher than a breakout narrative suggests. This is the season that determines whether he’s part of the Eagles’ long-term core or another talented player who gets cycled out when the next wave of contracts comes due. I believe in Nolan Smith, and I think he’s going to have a big year. We’ll see if it’s enough to lock down his future in Philadelphia.