The 2026 season is going to be pivotal for the Minnesota Vikings.

Head coach Kevin O’Connell may have a 43-25 record in the regular season, but having just two playoff appearances without a win is brutal, and has some in the fanbase calling for his job. It’s not likely that O’Connell is on the hot seat, but another year without a playoff win could put him on one.

What would the 2026 season look like in a simulation? After doing one for the Florida Gators earlier in the week, I asked Grok to break down a single simulation for how the 2026 Vikings season could turn out. Due to the randomness that football brings, I chose to do a single simulation versus 1,000 or more.

Grok’s game-by-game results for the 2026 regular season

First things first, Grok has Kyler Murray being the starting quarterback. He ended up playing 14 games, with J.J. McCarthy playing the other three.

Overall, the Vikings finished with a 10-7 record, which feels about right. Their win/loss over/under right now is set at 8.5, and 10 wins isn’t out of the question or unrealistic.

Before the bye week, the Vikings went 4-1, including a 27-24 win over the Green Bay Packers to start the season. They did lose against the Chicago Bears by a touchdown due to turnovers in Week 2. Wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Miami Dolphins, and New Orleans Saints have the Vikings thriving.

Out of the bye, the Vikings crush the Indianapolis Colts with a 35-14 win, thanks to a dominant rushing attack. However, things start to get rough as they go into a four-game losing streak, with losses to the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and San Francisco 49ers. Luckily for O’Connell, he didn’t let a 5-5 record stand, as the Vikings won the next five games, including a huge win over the New England Patriots.

With a 10-5 record, the Vikings would have a potential chance to win the NFC North, but a loss to the New York Jets in Week 17 hindered that, and they lost to the Bears in the final game, pushing them to the seventh seed.

In the playoffs, the Vikings drew the division-winning Packers, and they lost in a close game, 28.21. Murray did throw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, with Justin Jefferson continuing his great season with 140 yards in the game. Unfortunately, the defense let them down, as the rival Packers moved on.

Simulated statistical leaders

The numbers between the two quarterbacks on a per game basis were significantly better with Murray than McCarthy.

• Murray: 65.8% completion, 4,050 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 102.4 rating, 380 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns
• McCarthy: 620 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

The Vikings got a lot of good production in the running game from their backs.

• Aaron Jones: 185 carries, 820 yards, seven touchdowns
• Jordan Mason: 140 carries, 620 yards, 4 touchdowns

Through the air, the Vikings really thrived, including the first 1,000 season from Jordan Addison.

• Justin Jefferson: 112 receptions, 1,580 yards, 12 touchdowns (first-team All-Pro)
• Jordan Addison: 85 receptions, 1,020 yards, 8 touchdowns
• Jauan Jennings: 42 receptions, 550 yards, 4 touchdowns
• T.J. Hockenson: 65 receptions, 720 yards, 6 touchdowns

Defensively, the biggest contributors on the defensive line were Jalen Redmond and Caleb Banks, who combined for 18 sacks. If they got that kind of production from the defensive line, Vikings fans would be thrilled. They haven’t felt comfortable about the defensive line since Linvan Joseph and pre-knee surgery Sharrif Floyd.

They also had six Pro Bowl selections: Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Christian Darrisaw, Jalen Redmond, and Byron Murphy Jr. It would be odd that Murray doesn’t get the Pro Bowl nod with three pass catchers getting them. However, it’s not crazy considering the talent in the NFC.

Would this be a successful season?

That question is a loaded one. We know that the Vikings have had a lot of regular season success under O’Connell, and this would raise his record to 53-32. However, a playoff season with this roster will be both a good thing and the expectation.

Not winning the playoff game would be a brutal outcome for the Vikings. Would it get O’Connell fired? I’d doubt it, but the Vikings would be put under a major dilemma during the offseason: do you re-sign Murray? It’s a champagne problem for the Vikings, who will likely feel pressured to right the wrong that Sam Darnold’s leaving last year caused.