A lot of college football fans would like to think Ohio State a lock to make the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes have all the talent in the world, and most people would pencil them into the bracket without a second thought.

But I’m not putting 110 percent confidence on Ohio State making it this year, and the reasoning comes down to two things: quarterback Julian Sayin and a road schedule that is night and day compared to what this team faced last season.

Julian Sayin still has a step to take for the Buckeyes to make real noise

I need to see Julian Sayin take another step this upcoming season. And you may say, Tegan, he had a 70 percent completion percentage and was one of the most accurate quarterbacks in all of college football. Sure. But last year’s schedule was a hell of a lot easier than what this year’s schedule projects to be.

And when his pocket wasn’t clean, when he didn’t have all the time in the world to make a decision, we saw a little bit of what I think the reality with Julian Sayin is: a really good quarterback with the potential to be elite. That potential hasn’t been proven against top-tier competition week after week. There’s a difference between flashing it and sustaining it, and 2026 is going to demand the latter.

Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith on Julian Sayin 🎙️

“ He doesn’t feel like a young player to me because he sees the game so well. I’m super impressed by him.” @OhioStateFB | #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/KvA72I5YMp

— Ohio State Buckeyes 🌰 (@OhioStAthletics) August 12, 2026

The schedule is the big problem that could make-or-break Ohio State’s season

The road slate is so difficult it’s not even funny. In Week 2, Ohio State has to travel to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns. That’s one of the most hyped-up games in the entire season, and it’s a legitimate toss-up. But that’s just the beginning. You can also talk about Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Nebraska late into the year. Those are all difficult away games against programs that will be ready for the Buckeyes and hosting it in hostile environments.

And the home slate isn’t exactly a breather. Oregon still comes to Columbus, and then of course The Game, which is a toss-up every single year regardless of how talented either roster is. When you line this schedule up next to what Ohio State played last year, it is a night and day difference. The margin for error shrinks dramatically.

It’s foolish not to project the Buckeyes as a playoff team, but calling them a lock is bold

Let’s be real here. You’re Ohio State. You have the talent, you have the coaching, and I’m still projecting the Buckeyes to make the college football playoff. But to say they’re not a 110 percent a lock is not disrespectful or delusional. But then again, Ohio State fans are very much like Notre Dame fans, you guys are delusional every single year (in a good way). That’s why I love you guys.

The bottom line is this: Ohio State has to prove it can handle the hardest schedule in the Big Ten with a quarterback who hasn’t been tested at that kind of level consistently. If Sayin can take that next step and the Buckeyes survive the road gauntlet, they’ll be in the bracket. I’ll stamp that. But a lock? I’m not giving that respect before they earn it.