Renowned CFB expert predicts Notre Dame to suffer a heartbreaking CFB Playoff ending to a hated rival
Notre Dame football enters the 2026 CFB season with some extremely high expectations. They are predicting to have a tough ending.
Josh Pate, one of the most prominent college football analysts in the country, has released his final 2026 college football playoff prediction.
The veteran analyst who has done work for On3, Yahoo Sports, and ESPN projects the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to finish 12-0 and earn the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket. However, Pate does not see head coach Marcus Freeman’s squad winning the national championship, instead predicting a semifinal loss to the No. 4 Miami Hurricanes.
Pate has been somewhat bullish on Notre Dame throughout the offseason. In a previous early college football playoff prediction, he stood as one of the few analysts who had predicted the Fighting Irish to reach the national title game and win it all. This time around, his projection has Notre Dame defeating No. 8 Alabama in the quarterfinal round after a first-round bye, with the Crimson Tide having beaten USC in their opening matchup.
But Kalen DeBoer’s squad would be the end of the road for the Irish, as Pate has Mario Cristobal and Miami knocking off Notre Dame before going on to win the national championship over the Oregon Ducks.
Why this would sting for Fighting Irish fans
If Pate’s projection ends up being correct, this would represent one of the worst-case scenarios for Notre Dame heading into the 2026 college football season. Freeman and his squad have legitimate national title aspirations for several key reasons.
They bring back all three coordinators along with their head coach. They also return a proven second-year starting quarterback in CJ Carr, who is fresh off a redshirt freshman season where he threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdown passes while throwing just six interceptions and completing over 66% of his passes.
Add in the fact that both the Notre Dame offensive and defensive lines are deep and talented while also featuring arguably the best secondary in all of college football. There is a clear reason why so many are high on this Notre Dame team going into 2026.
Falling short of those national title hopes would be a tough blow. The 2026 season has been the year that most Fighting Irish fans have circled on their calendar as the time for the program to finally end its championship drought.
The Miami factor makes it worse
If it came at the hands of the Miami Hurricanes, the sting would cut even deeper. In a lot of ways, the Miami and Notre Dame programs mirror one another right now. If Cristobal was able to get his team back to the mountaintop before Notre Dame, it would be a difficult pill to swallow.
That is also a historical rivalry rooted in the Catholics vs. Convicts series. Seeing one of your hated rivals win a national championship is never easy, especially a team the Irish play in the regular season in 2026 and lost to in 2025.
Let’s hope Pate is just a little bit off on his prediction and Notre Dame ends up proving him wrong.
