Grok simulates the final outcome of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2026 season ahead of Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons
The Pittsburgh Steelers officially kick off Week 1 of the 2026 season this week against the Atlanta Falcons, but how should we project this season to look overall? We have run the numbers from an unbiased POV, and here is what Grok says.
The wait is officially over. Training camp is behind us, the preseason is over, and the roster deadline day has come and gone. All 32 teams will be in action this week, starting Wednesday, when the Patriots and Seahawks kick things off with a Super Bowl rematch.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, the show starts on Sunday afternoon against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite all the questions about how many quarterbacks the Steelers will field, or Joey Porter Jr.’s contract situation, or surprising roster cuts, it’s time to spot the ball. But before we get there, let’s take one final look at how the Steelers season might shake out with the help of our friend Grok.
The setup heading into Week 1
Coaching: Mike McCarthy (HC), Brian Angelichio (OC), Patrick Graham (DC).
QB room: Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, Drew Allar — all four kept on the 53.
Offense: DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr. both expected back for the opener; Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren as the 1-2 punch; Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington at TE. Broderick Jones was traded; first-round tackle Max Iheanachor is in the mix on a young line.
Defense: T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward, Jalen Ramsey, Joey Porter Jr. (activated off PUP), Jaquan Brisker.
Preseason: W 28-9 vs. Packers, L 17-0 vs. Jets, L 28-27 at Bills. Rodgers sat all three.
Simulated record: 10-7, 2nd AFC North, No. 7 seed. Lost wild-card round.
Game-by-game
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | The story |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 13 | vs. Falcons | W 24-17 | 1-0 | McCarthy’s debut is tidy, not pretty. Tua is accurate early to Drake London, but Watt and Highsmith collapse the pocket in the second half. Rodgers 21/32, 231, 2 TD (Metcalf, Freiermuth). Boswell 24 and 41. |
| 2 | Sep 20 | @ Patriots | W 20-16 | 2-0 | Ugly road win. Warren 86 rushing. Patriots miss a 49-yarder late. Rodgers manages, doesn’t wow. |
| 3 | Sep 27 | vs. Bengals | W 27-24 | 3-0 | The first real test. Burrow-Chase is a problem; Ramsey holds up just enough. Pittman 8/102. Boswell wins it from 47 as time expires. Acrisure is loud again. |
| 4 | Oct 1 | @ Browns (TNF) | W 17-13 | 4-0 | Thursday slog in Cleveland. Watt strip-sack in the fourth. Dowdle 22 carries, 91 yards. Steelers are 4-0 and the city is doing the thing. |
| 5 | Oct 11 | vs. Colts | L 20-31 | 4-1 | First real punch in the mouth. Colts run it down Pittsburgh’s throat. Rodgers pressured, one pick in the red zone. McCarthy’s first “we weren’t ready” presser. |
| 6 | Oct 18 | @ Buccaneers | L 16-27 | 4-2 | Tampa’s blitz wins. Rodgers is sacked five times. Iheanachor has a rough afternoon. The 4-0 high is gone. |
| 7 | Oct 25 | @ Saints (Paris) | W 23-20 | 5-2 | 9:30 a.m. ET kick at Stade de France. Jet-lag football. Wetjen’s 61-yard kick return sets up the go-ahead score. Boswell from 38 with 0:11 left. The trip is a circus; the win is huge. |
| 8 | Nov 1 | vs. Browns | W 24-10 | 6-2 | Home control. Heyward two sacks. Warren and Dowdle combine for 148. Division record 3-0. |
| 9 | — | BYE | — | 6-2 | Porter Jr. fully ramped. Rodgers’ calf is “managed,” which is coach-speak for watched like a hawk. |
| 10 | Nov 15 | @ Bengals (SNF) | L 21-28 | 6-3 | Paycor at night is a different animal. Burrow 312/3 TD. Pittsburgh’s secondary finally cracks. Split of the season series. |
| 11 | Nov 22 | @ Eagles | L 13-26 | 6-4 | The gauntlet starts. Philly’s front wrecks protection. Rodgers 19/36, 188, 1 INT. McCarthy’s West Coast timing never settles. |
| 12 | Nov 27 | vs. Broncos (Black Friday) | W 27-24 OT | 7-4 | Best game of the year. Metcalf 9/141, TD. Watt forces OT with a sack-fumble. Boswell 51 in overtime. Prime-time statement. |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. Texans (SNF) | L 16-23 | 7-5 | Houston is the team that ended 2025 in the wild card. Déjà vu. Steelers can’t finish drives. Rudolph warms up in the fourth after Rodgers takes a shot; Rodgers stays in. |
| 14 | Dec 14 | @ Jaguars (MNF) | L 20-27 | 7-6 | Jacksonville in December, on a short week after SNF. The offense stalls after two early scores. Three-game losing feel even though they won Black Friday. |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. Ravens | W 28-24 | 8-6 | The rivalry still works. Lamar is electric; Pittsburgh is nastier. Queen picks Jackson at the 8 with 1:42 left. Freiermuth 2 TD. Acrisure does Acrisure. |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. Panthers | W 31-13 | 9-6 | Get-right game. Howard plays the fourth. Allar gets a series. Bernard’s first NFL TD. Playoff math is suddenly simple. |
| 17 | Jan 3 | @ Titans | W 19-16 | 10-6 | Another Boswell special (43 and 38). Warren 102. Clinches a playoff berth on the road in January. Very Steelers. |
| 18 | Jan 10 | @ Ravens | L 17-20 | 10-7 | Baltimore locks the North. Steelers rest Watt and Ramsey in the second half once the seed is set. Rodgers wants to play the whole game. McCarthy sits him for the last series. The handshake is respectful and a little cold. |
Final: 10-7 (6-3 home, 4-4 road). 2nd AFC North, No. 7 seed.
Playoffs
Wild Card @ No. 2 seed (projected: Houston or the AFC’s other 12-win team)
L 14-27
Rodgers’ last NFL snap is a 3rd-and-8 incompletion to Pittman at the opposite 34, down 13 with 2:11 left. He walks off without a wave, then turns back at the tunnel and taps the “Steelers” on his chest once. Watt is the last one off the field.
It is the third straight January exit and the first of the McCarthy era. The building in Pittsburgh is not angry. It is tired of this specific ending.
How the season actually felt
Rodgers, Year 22. About 3,640 yards, 24 TD, 11 INT, 62% completions. He was excellent in Weeks 1–4 and 12 and 15, ordinary everywhere else, and he never became a statue — he just stopped being able to punish a missed rusher with his legs. McCarthy’s offense helped him. It did not hide him.
The new toys worked more than they didn’t. Metcalf was the alpha (1,150-yard pace, 8 TD). Pittman was the chain-mover. Bernard became WR3 by December. Freiermuth had his best chemistry year with Rodgers. Dowdle won early downs; Warren won third downs.
The defense was still the identity. Watt remained a top-five edge. Graham’s front was better against the run than Tomlin’s last unit, worse when the secondary had to cover for 35+ attempts. Ramsey vs. Chase in Week 3 was a win. Ramsey vs. the Eagles’ group in Week 11 was not.
The line was the swing factor. When Fautanu and Frazier were clean, Pittsburgh looked like a 12-win team. After Jones was traded, the right side was a week-to-week question. Iheanachor flashed and got beat. That is why the post-bye gauntlet (Bengals, Eagles, Broncos, Texans, Jaguars) went 1-4 except for the Black Friday classic.
The four-QB experiment was a luxury that never became a crisis. Rudolph was one snap from a start in Week 13. Howard and Allar were developmental, not competitive. McCarthy’s “QB U” talk was real in practice and mostly theoretical on Sundays.
AFC North (sim)
| Team | Record | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 12-5 | North champs. Lamar stays healthy enough. |
| Steelers | 10-7 | Wild card. Split with Baltimore, split with Cincinnati. |
| Bengals | 11-6 | Wild card. Burrow’s offense is still the problem for everyone else. |
| Browns | 5-12 | Swept by Pittsburgh. |
Pittsburgh’s division record in the sim: 4-2.
Awards and numbers from the sim
- Pro Bowl: Watt, Boswell, Metcalf
- Team MVP: T.J. Watt, with Metcalf a close second
- Rookie of the year candidate, internally: Germie Bernard
- Boswell: 31-of-34 FG, still the most trusted man in the building
- McCarthy: 10-8 including the playoff loss. The city grades it as “fine, not the standard.”
What this season decided
- Rodgers’ last year was a real season, not a farewell tour. Ten wins, a playoff game, no Super Bowl talk that survived December.
- McCarthy can organize an offense in Pittsburgh. He cannot yet win the ugly January game that Tomlin also often didn’t win.
- 2027 is Allar/Howard’s job to lose, with Rudolph as the adult in the room if the kid isn’t ready in September.
- The window with Watt-Heyward-Ramsey is one more serious year, maybe two. Omar Khan’s next offseason has to treat the roster like a team that just went 10-7 and ran out of answers in January — again.
Week 1 is still Sunday. The Falcons are 3.5-point underdogs with Tua starting and Penix inactive. In this sim, that one goes the way Acrisure openers are supposed to go. The rest of the year is the part that looks like the Steelers you already know: competitive, stubborn, and one layer short when the bracket starts.
