The wait is officially over. Training camp is behind us, the preseason is over, and the roster deadline day has come and gone. All 32 teams will be in action this week, starting Wednesday, when the Patriots and Seahawks kick things off with a Super Bowl rematch.

For the Buffalo Bills, things kick off Sunday afternoon against the Houston Texans. Josh Allen is looking to get back to his MVP form as the urgency grows, the roster is set, and the offseason surprises are over. But before the Bills spot the ball, let’s take one final unbiased look at how the Bills project in 2026, with the help of our friend Grok.

Simulated 2026 season

Final record: 13–4. AFC East champions. No. 2 seed. Super Bowl LXI champions.

That is the destination. The path is not clean.

September: Brady’s first month

Week 1 at Houston — L, 20–23.
Joe Brady’s debut is exactly the trap local writers flagged. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter wreck the first two series. Allen is 21-of-34 for 218 with a pick in the red zone. Cook gets 86 on 19 carries and a score; Moore’s Bills debut is 4 for 52. Ka’imi Fairbairn wins it from 41 as time expires. Buffalo is 0–1, and the “new coach, same January problem” posts start before the plane leaves Hobby.

Week 2 vs. Detroit — W, 34–28 (new Highmark opener, TNF).
The $2 billion building opens in a monsoon of table-banging. Allen runs for 64 and two scores. Cook rips a 41-yard TD in the third. Jared Goff keeps answering. Bass hits 47 as the clock hits zero, then the city discovers the new bowl is louder than the old one.

Week 3 vs. Chargers — W, 27–17.
Leonhard’s 3-4 finally looks like a plan. Chubb and Rousseau combine for three sacks of Herbert. Shakir (cleared) goes 7 for 91. 2–1.

Week 4 vs. Patriots — W, 31–24.
Maye vs. Allen, AJ Brown vs. Benford. The building is unkind to New England. Kincaid’s 18-yard score with 1:52 left is the dagger. First statement win of the Brady era.

September record: 3–1. The offense is still hunting identity. The run game is the identity.

October: the West Coast and the bye

Week 5 at Rams — L, 23–30 (MNF).
Matthew Stafford carves the young corners. Puka and Adams combine for 210. Allen throws two picks, one a Hunter-style strip-sack fumble that isn’t a pick but feels like one. 3–2, and the national take is “same old Bills on the road.”

Week 6 at Las Vegas — W, 38–16.
Cook: 28-142-2. Allen: 4 TD passes, zero sacks. A palate cleanser.

Bye. Shavers still not back. Coleman’s foot is quiet. Gardner-Johnson is fully himself again — which means the secondary talks as much as it hits.

November: the season tilts

Week 8 vs. Baltimore — W, 33–31.
A 2025 hangover game that goes the other way. Lamar has 3 TD. Allen answers with 3 passing and a 12-yard scramble at 0:41. Bass from 39. Highmark is now 4–0.

Week 9 at Minnesota — L, 20–27.
U.S. Bank in November. Jefferson is uncovered once. That’s the game.

Week 10 at Jets — W, 28–6.
Business trip. Cook 100 even. Defense scores.

Week 11 vs. Miami — W, 41–17.
Moore’s first 100-yard day as a Bill (6-118-1). Allen sits the fourth. 8–3.

Week 12 vs. Kansas City, Thanksgiving — L, 24–27.
Mahomes still has the Thanksgiving script. A 4th-and-2 conversion in the final two minutes, Rashee Rice on a glance route, Highmark goes silent. 8–4. The AFC East lead over New England shrinks to one game.

December–January: the gauntlet

Week 13 at New England — W, 27–23.
The game that wins the division. Maye has Brown for 140. Allen has everybody. Cook’s 3-yard plunge with 1:08, then Chubb beats the right tackle on 3rd-and-8 to end it. Sweep of the Patriots.

Week 14 at Green Bay — L, 16–22.
Lambeau, Sunday night, 19 degrees. Jordan Love is clean. Bass misses from 51. 9–5. Seeding gets messy.

Week 15 vs. Chicago — W, 30–13.
Moore against his old club: 8-104-2. Petty and perfect.

Week 16 at Denver, Christmas — W, 29–26.
The revenge game. Same building as McDermott’s last night. Bo Nix leads twice. Allen finds Kincaid from 9 yards at 0:28. Cole Bishop tips the last heave. Players point at the visitor tunnel on the way out. 11–5.

Week 17 at Miami — W, 24–10.
Rest-adjacent. Ray Davis gets 22 carries. Division clinched when New England loses later in the window.

Week 18 vs. Jets — W, 21–17.
Allen plays a half. 13–4. No. 2 seed in the AFC. Patriots 11–6, wild card. Texans 12–5, No. 3. Ravens No. 1 at 14–3.

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Simulated final regular-season table

Wk	Opponent	Result	Record
1	at Texans	L 20–23	0–1
2	Lions	W 34–28	1–1
3	Chargers	W 27–17	2–1
4	Patriots	W 31–24	3–1
5	at Rams	L 23–30	3–2
6	at Raiders	W 38–16	4–2
8	Ravens	W 33–31	5–2
9	at Vikings	L 20–27	5–3
10	at Jets	W 28–6	6–3
11	Dolphins	W 41–17	7–3
12	Chiefs	L 24–27	7–4
13	at Patriots	W 27–23	8–4
14	at Packers	L 16–22	8–5
15	Bears	W 30–13	9–5
16	at Broncos	W 29–26	10–5
17	at Dolphins	W 24–10	11–5
18	Jets	W 21–17	13–4

Home: 7–1. Road: 6–3. Division: 6–0.

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Playoffs (simulated)

Divisional — vs. Houston, Highmark.
The rematch. Stroud is better than Week 1. Buffalo is home and angry. Cook 31-128-2. Allen 2 passing TD, 1 rushing. Chubb strip-sacks Stroud at the Buffalo 18 in the fourth. Bills 27, Texans 20.

AFC Championship — at Baltimore.
Lamar vs. Allen, January, the building that has owned Buffalo for years. This time the 3-4 holds on third down. Kincaid, 9-112. Bass from 41 with 0:11. Bills 23, Ravens 20. First conference title since the early ’90s. Allen on the podium does not smile so much as exhale.

Super Bowl LXI — vs. Los Angeles Rams, SoFi.
Stafford’s last great run against the quarterback who was supposed to have one of these already. The Rams lead 21–10 at half. Moore’s 44-yard catch-and-run on the opening script of the third quarter flips the math. Cook’s 1-yard plunge, 7:02 left, 24–21. Stafford drives to the Buffalo 29. Ed Oliver and Deone Walker win a long-yardage down. Allen kneels. Bills 24, Rams 21.

Thirty-two years. Four Super Bowl losses in a row in another century. One new stadium, one new coach, one old quarterback who would not leave the pocket empty.

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Simulated season numbers

Player	Line
Josh Allen	~3,720 pass yds, 29 TD, 11 INT; 580 rush yds, 12 TD. MVP runner-up (Lamar). SB MVP.
James Cook	1,410 rush yds, 16 total TD. Second-team All-Pro again.
DJ Moore	78-1,105-8. The trade looks correct by November.
Khalil Shakir	71-820-5 when healthy.
Dalton Kincaid	68-790-7. The January tight end.
Defense	41 sacks (Chubb 11, Rousseau 9.5). Leonhard’s unit is average in October, top-10 in December.

Tyler Bass is still Tyler Bass: two misses that cost a game (Green Bay) and the kicks that win two others (Detroit, Minnesota no, Denver and Baltimore yes).

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What the simulation is actually saying

The real 2026 Bills are a 12-win team with a Super Bowl-or-bust job description, a first-year head coach, a scheme change on defense, and a schedule that puts Kansas City, New England, Green Bay, and Denver in a four-week blender after Thanksgiving. The market already knows that.

The version above assumes three things break right:

1. Cook stays a feature back and the OL (Dawkins–Anderson–McGovern–Torrence–Brown) holds up after the Houston opener.
2. Moore is the 2023 version, not the 2025 Bears version.
3. Leonhard’s 3-4 stops leaking explosives by midseason, which is the actual swing skill on this roster.

If Week 1 in Houston is a three-score loss and Shakir misses a month, this same team is 10–7 and a wild-card guest. That is also a responsible simulation.

Sunday is not simulated. Sunday is at NRG, 1 p.m., CBS. That one you will get to watch.