The Lions have one defensive number that’s killing them, and fixing it, even a little, could change everything
Detroit has been fine on first and second down and is getting pressure when it needs to. The problem is a narrow range of third downs where conversions and costly penalties keep extending drives.
The Detroit Lions defense has a third-down problem, and it might be the single most important thing standing between this team and the version of itself it wants to be.
Credit to SFData Niners, who put out a great graph breaking down success rates allowed per down across the league. He’s a 49ers guy, but his work is useful for everybody. I was curious where the Lions were getting hurt, and the answer jumped off the page.
First and second down are fine
On first down, Detroit is getting stops on 45% of attempts. That’s essentially league average. On second down, it’s 47.2%. Again, league average. Not everybody is going to be what Minnesota is doing right now, and that’s fine. Fourth down? The Lions have allowed 100% of conversions, but that’s on three attempts. It’s not a real sample.
Third down is where the trouble lives. Only one team in the NFL, the Green Bay Packers, is worse than the Lions. Which is cool if you’re a Lions fan because you hate the Packers, right? But it’s not good for Detroit. The Lions are allowing a 59.1% success rate on third down. That’s tough.
Where exactly is the bleeding?
I wanted to dig deeper, so I isolated every third-down play the Lions have faced through three games. Against New Orleans, Detroit allowed eight conversions on 17 third downs. Against the Jets, it was six of 12. And the Bills? Nine of 12. Buffalo was doing whatever it wanted on third down, and there was nothing the Lions could do to stop it.
| Distance | Conversions | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 1-3 | 13/16 | 81.3% |
| 3rd & 4-6 | 6/11 | 54.5% |
| 3rd & 7-9 | 3/5 | 60.0% |
| 3rd & 10+ | 1/9 | 11.1% |
The down-and-distance breakdown tells you even more. On third-and-short (third-and-1 through third-and-3), the Lions are allowing 13 of 16 conversions, an 81.3% rate. You can understand that to some degree. The league average on third-and-short is probably around there. On third-and-4 through third-and-6, it’s six of 11, 54.5%. Rough, but not catastrophic.
Here’s the thing. On third-and-7 through third-and-9, the Lions are allowing a 60% conversion rate. That’s horrible. That’s really bad. On third-and-10-plus, they’re down to 11.1%, which is exactly where you want to be. But that middle range, third-and-4 through third-and-9, is where Detroit has to be better.
Penalties are making it worse
Part of this is self-inflicted. Rock Ya-Sin had an illegal contact on a third-and-6 that continued a drive. He also had a DPI on a third-and-9 that kept another drive alive. Roger McCreary had a holding call on third-and-6 that not only extended the Bills’ drive but erased a Skyler Gill-Howard interception. D.J. Reed had a DPI on third-and-17 against the Jets. These penalties are murdering the Lions on third down.
The pass rush isn’t the problem
I know a lot of people want to point at the pass rush, but that’s not really accurate. The Lions are 11th in the league in third-down pressures, which is actually tied for sixth because several teams ahead of them share the same number. They’re seventh in the league in third-down sacks, technically second because only three teams have five while Detroit and a group of others have four. They’re second in the league in time to pressure on third down.
They’re getting there. They’re doing everything they need to do up front.
And here’s what makes it even more confusing. Detroit is allowing just 45.7 passing yards per game on third down according to Next Gen Stats, which is 11th in the league. It’s not even bad. The Lions are just allowing the right plays to happen at the right time. Outside of two explosive plays across three weeks, it’s all dinks and dunks, the perfect short completions at the perfect moments. Keon Coleman gets exactly seven yards on third-and-6 against the Bills. Little stuff like that.
| Game | Down & distance | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Saints | 3rd & 4 | Botched snap, 1 yard — stop |
| Saints | 3rd & 5 | Olave, 7 yards — conversion |
| Saints | 3rd & 5 | Vele, 31 yards — conversion |
| Saints | 3rd & 5 | Etienne, 1 yard — stop |
| Saints | 3rd & 6 | Hutchinson sack — stop |
| Bills | 3rd & 5 | Incomplete — stop |
| Bills | 3rd & 6 | Coleman, 7 yards — conversion |
| Jets | 3rd & 4 | Wonnum sack — stop |
| Jets | 3rd & 4 | Ruckert, 4-yard TD — conversion |
| Jets | 3rd & 4 | Garrett Wilson, 6 yards — conversion |
| Jets | 3rd & 6 | Hall, 12 yards — conversion |
| Saints | 3rd & 7 | Incomplete — stop |
| Saints | 3rd & 9 | Olave, 11 yards — conversion |
| Bills | 3rd & 7 | Coleman, 9 yards — conversion |
| Bills | 3rd & 8 | Incomplete — stop |
| Jets | 3rd & 7 | Isaiah Williams, 21 yards — conversion |
Just lower the number
If the Lions went from 59.1% to just 50% on third down, that wouldn’t even make them a top-10 defense in the category. But it’s the difference between allowing roughly 27 points per game and 23 to 24 points per game. That might not sound super exciting, but that keeps teams out of games. That keeps Detroit in the driver’s seat. We know the offense is going to produce. Even dropping to 55% would help.
At this point, I know everybody wants a trade, and that’s the only thing fans think will fix this team. But if the Lions just lower this one number a little bit, they’re going to be in so much better shape for the rest of the season. We’ll see what happens.
