Lions vs. Panthers Prediction Lab: Detroit has some major advantages, but one problem could keep Carolina in this game
Carolina will be without both starting cornerbacks and could have issues up front, but Detroit’s own third-down problems give the Panthers a path to making this much closer than it should be.
Welcome to the weekly Lions Prediction Lab. The Detroit Lions take on the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. We’re breaking down where the Lions can beat the Panthers, where Carolina can beat Detroit, what decides the game, and our final score prediction. Let’s jump into it.
Where the Lions can beat the Panthers
For starters, you have to attack the replacement cornerbacks. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on IR and will miss this game. That leaves rookie cornerback Will Lee and Akayleb Evans as the expected replacements. I scouted Lee before this year’s draft. I don’t know a whole lot about Evans. Carolina also has Chau Smith-Wade, who I was high on coming out of the draft.
Attacking those corners should be the No. 1 priority. Put Amon-Ra St. Brown in good positions. Get Jameson Williams going. If the Lions want to stretch the field and take the top off, this is the best opportunity they’ve had so far. I’d expect to see Isaac TeSlaa get some work too.
Here’s the thing. Any team missing both starting corners is going to keep safeties over the top. That’s where Jahmyr Gibbs comes in. He tests the space underneath, which creates lighter boxes and keeps those safeties honest. This would also be a great time to lean on 12 and 13 personnel. Fool Carolina into thinking everything is a deep shot and run the ball on them. Then, once the Panthers start creeping up to stop the run, take the top off.
Defensively, Alim McNeill, Tyleik Williams, and Skyler Gill-Howard have all looked good. This is the game to attack through the middle. Panthers guard Damien Lewis has not practiced Wednesday or Thursday, and he isn’t expected to play. Rookie right tackle Monroe Freeling had a limited practice Thursday but is still in concussion protocol. If I’m the Lions, I prepare for him to be there.
Even with those guys, the Browns pressured Bryce Young on 52% of his dropbacks last week. Young still threw for almost 300 yards, and Carolina had a chance to win that game. So the pressure has to be deliberate. Win on first and second down and get the Panthers into third-and-long. Carolina is converting just 36.8% of its third downs.
Turn that pressure into sacks, or get Young off his spot and force bad throws. Just don’t let him run on you. You saw what Josh Allen did. Maybe pull back on the blitz a little and let McNeill, Williams, and Gill-Howard win up the middle.
Where the Panthers can beat the Lions
Don’t let Carolina solve its third-down issue against you. As we wrote earlier Friday, the Lions defense is allowing a 59.1% success rate on third down. That’s the second-worst in the league. Only the Green Bay Packers are worse. So feel good about that if you’re a Packers hater, which, if you’re a Lions fan, I’m sure you are.
The Panthers also lead the NFL with 295.7 passing yards per game, and Young can still produce when the pocket breaks down. I think the Lions can stop Chuba Hubbard, who ran for 82 yards last week. Detroit’s run defense is better than people think. Buffalo just had its number. It was good against Travis Etienne and Breece Hall. But that means Young is going to throw it, and he’ll get his yards.
That’s why you can’t lose the tight ends. Noah Fant got work in for the Saints. Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes got work in for the Bills. Kenyon Sadiq had a big game for the Jets.
Everybody wants to look at the secondary. They should be looking at the linebackers in coverage. Jack Campbell is struggling right now, and this has to be a get-right game for him. Detroit can’t let Carolina dink and dunk down the field and win time of possession.
And please, don’t kill yourself with penalties. The Lions had a go-away win last week if D.J. Reed doesn’t commit two defensive pass interference penalties. One came on a third-and-17 and the other came on a fourth-and-6 on a different drive. You can’t play that game again.
Don’t treat this like an easy game either. Young is still a good player. Carolina still has linebacker Devin Lloyd, and Jalen Coker practiced Thursday. Think about last year, when a depleted Lions team still beat Tampa Bay.
What decides this game?
It comes down to third down on both sides. Detroit’s offense is great on third down right now. Keep it that way. On the other side, the defense has to keep Carolina’s third-down offense right where it is. Get the defense off the field and make sure the offense does work when it’s out there.
I saw the defense take a step last week. Take those two DPIs off the board, and everyone forgets it wasn’t the greatest defensive performance they ever saw. Even a small improvement helps. If you get that 59.1% down to 55%, that’s a huge change. Get it to 50%, and it’s even bigger.
Final prediction
I’ve got the Lions winning. There’s just too much going on in Carolina with injuries, and if any team knows how hard that is to overcome, it’s Detroit. I think the Lions offense succeeds against this defense, and this could be the get-right game the defense needs.
Lions 31, Panthers 14. That’s right, 31 again. That would tie an NFL record for the same point total in four straight games. So I’m going with the Lions setting a record and winning in prime time. Then there’s one more game before the bye. We’ll see what happens.
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