Lions vs. Cardinals prediction: Where Detroit can win, what could get the Lions beat and our Week 5 pick
Detroit has opportunities against Arizona’s injured offensive line, but the Cardinals are built to attack some of the same weaknesses that have hurt the Lions through four games.
It’s time for another Prediction Lab. The Detroit Lions host the Arizona Cardinals, so let’s break down where Detroit can win this game, what could get the Lions beat, what ultimately decides it, and a final score prediction.
Look, I get it. On paper, a 1-3 Cardinals team doesn’t seem like a big threat. But Arizona has a few things that line up with the problems Detroit has had all season, and that makes this one worth taking seriously.
Where the Lions can win this game
For starters, the Lions need answers ready for the blitz. Arizona got aggressive last week against the Giants and finished with four sacks. Detroit has to give quarterback Jared Goff time to attack the Cardinals’ coverage. Don’t let Arizona repeat last week’s performance.
The good thing is the Lions have a much better offensive line than they did last season. Pressure hasn’t really affected Goff this year. The real test comes in a few weeks against Minnesota. To be honest, though, the Vikings are doing that to everybody, and there isn’t much anyone can do to stop it.
On defense, Detroit has to attack Arizona’s replacement offensive linemen. Left tackle Paris Johnson is going to be on IR and is out for the season, so the Lions need to go after whoever replaces him. Right guard Isaiah Adams won’t play either.
That means getting pressure up the middle. That was the big key against the Panthers. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill had to attack from the middle, and it worked. Then Carolina shifted into getting the ball out fast, and that is exactly what I expect Arizona to try.
Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett averages 5.4 yards per attempt. He also threw three interceptions against the Giants, so Detroit has to take advantage of his tendency to turn the ball over. Still, this is Arizona’s game. If the Cardinals want to live at 5.4 yards per attempt, the Lions have to be where they’re supposed to be. Don’t let this team dink and dunk its way down the field.
What can get the Lions beat
That brings us to the biggest danger. Quick throws to the sticks can make Detroit’s pass rush completely irrelevant, which is how Carolina just beat the Lions. Arizona appears to be built for that.
The Cardinals are also built to exploit another problem. Who has been beating the Lions up this year? Tight ends. And Arizona has one of the best tight ends in the league in Trey McBride.
Detroit has allowed 37 catches for 407 yards and six touchdowns to tight ends this season. McBride is the Cardinals’ leading pass catcher with 33 receptions. They’re going to throw it to him. The Lions have to be all over him.
Then there’s the run game. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Jeremiyah Love is pretty good, and the Lions have struggled against the run. Chuba Hubbard ran all over this defense. So did James Cook. On the other hand, Detroit shut down Travis Etienne and Breece Hall. Maybe the Lions stop the run every other week and Arizona catches them on an odd week. Either way, they have to do it here.
Stop the run, and you stop the Cardinals’ entire plan. They want balance. More importantly, they want to set up McBride with the run. Don’t let them pile up yards after the catch, don’t let them run the ball, and don’t let McBride beat you. It’s easier said than done.
Penalties are the other concern. Mistakes are going to happen. But false starts and delay-of-game penalties put an offense in third-and-long and fourth-and-long situations, and you lose games that way. Don’t give Arizona extra chances.
What decides the game
I think it all comes down to what the Lions can do with McBride. Detroit can maybe survive a few explosive runs, but if the Lions can’t handle that tight end, they’re going to lose.
I don’t know what to think of this Cardinals team right now. Coming into the season, I thought they were one of the worst teams in football. They’re 1-3, so they aren’t winning a bunch of games, but they’re in them. Arizona had the Giants dead to rights last week until a late pick-six.
I look at the Cardinals the same way I looked at the Jets and the Saints. These are teams that can stick around, and Detroit can’t let that happen.
Final score prediction
Stop McBride, keep Goff clean, get the run game going, and stop Arizona’s run game. If those things happen, the Lions walk out with a win.
I don’t think it’s a blowout, though. I have the Lions winning 31-28, with kicker Jake Bates hitting a game-winning field goal to end it. We’ll probably come away thinking that Detroit’s defense needs all the help it can get. Hopefully, the Lions go out and get it during the bye week.
We’ll see how it plays out on Sunday.
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