The New York Giants have a better chance of beating the Washington Commanders on Sunday than many people will admit. With Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels expected back on the field, it feels like everyone has decided the Giants will lose and that their start to the season was a complete fluke.

I don’t believe the Giants are about to make some wild march toward the playoffs. However, this is one of the most winnable games on their schedule so far because of the Commanders’ current state.

Jayden Daniels is returning to a banged-up Commanders offense

The biggest caveat with Washington is how difficult it is to evaluate the offense. Daniels has barely played this year after dislocating the elbow in his non-throwing arm against the Dallas Cowboys.

His physical state is unclear. How healed is his dislocated elbow, and how willing is he to take off as a runner? Escaping the pocket and evading rushers is one of his best tools. If he carries an extra degree of hesitation, he could hang back in the pocket to avoid hits, which would affect his decision-making.

Daniels also isn’t walking into the same offense he had when he took this team to the NFC Championship Game. Wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs didn’t practice Thursday, and the Commanders have already lost another receiver for an extended period. Even if McLaurin and Diggs play, they’re coming off injuries just like Daniels. The supporting cast is a gigantic mess.

Washington can’t run the ball, no matter who is under center. The offensive line hasn’t been stellar either. As a result, Washington ranks 24th in EPA per play, 20th in EPA per pass, and 22nd in EPA per rush.

The Giants defense needs to keep sending heat

The Giants ratcheted up the pressure last week against the Arizona Cardinals after holding back in the first few games, and it worked. The points they allowed were inflated by the 10 points Jameis Winston handed to Arizona. That defense played its best game all year.

Of course, this is a tougher test. Daniels is far better than Jacoby Brissett, no matter how hobbled he is. That said, the Giants need to be aggressive, fluster him, and force mistakes. It’s easier said than done, but with this defense’s speed, send pressure. If a talented offense beats you with big plays, at least lose while chasing game-altering sacks and turnovers.

Isaiah Likely could feast against a struggling Washington defense

It’s an oxymoron, but Dan Quinn’s defense hasn’t been good despite his defensive pedigree. The Commanders rank 18th in EPA per pass allowed, 21st in EPA per rush allowed, and 21st in EPA per play allowed.

The most glaring issue is in the red zone. Washington is allowing touchdowns on 80% of opponents’ red zone trips. Finishing drives has been a frustrating, recurring problem for the Giants since Winston took over, and the play calling hasn’t helped. They’ve reached the red zone plenty. This matchup sets them up to finally cash in.

Even more striking, the Commanders have surrendered five tight-end touchdowns, the second most in the NFL. Isaiah Likely is one of the best tight ends we’ve seen this year. I expect him to draw a ton of red zone targets and score. A big day from Likely would open up the rest of this offense.

Keeping Jameis Winston out of trouble is the only path

Washington blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league, and Winston has struggled under pressure with a 36.8 passer rating when blitzed. The offensive line can’t let him get heated up.

Additionally, the run game needs to control the pace as it has in spurts since the win over the Cowboys. Keeping Winston from dropping back is the ultimate key to winning more games. It’s the only way to stop him from shooting the offense in the foot with inexplicable turnovers, and I’m tired of watching it.

The Giants need to drive defensive linemen off the ball and get chunk yards on Najee Harris and Cam Skattebo. If they can’t get rolling on the ground, Washington will send heat at Winston, he’ll turn the ball over, and that’s how this game slips away.

Hopefully, the Giants lean on the ground game and their pass rush, because that formula gives them a real chance to prove the doubters wrong on Sunday.