The Lions have allowed the NFL’s most explosive plays, but what happens afterward is the much bigger problem: How they adjust
Detroit has allowed 28 explosive gains through five games, but the bigger problem is what comes next: only three of the 21 possessions featuring one ended without points.
We know one of the biggest problems with the Detroit Lions’ defense right now is explosive plays allowed. Through five games, the Lions have given up 28 of them. That’s the most in the NFL.
Even with the results from Sunday factored in, nobody has been worse. The Buffalo Bills are right behind Detroit with 27, but Buffalo has played six games. So yes, it’s bad.
The part that stings more is where those plays lead. Those 28 explosive gains came on 21 different possessions. Of those possessions, 15 ended in touchdowns, three ended in field goals, and three ended without points.
What does that mean? Once an opponent rips off a big play against this defense, the Lions have gotten off the field without allowing points just three times.
What happens on the very next play?
Look, you’re not going to get rid of explosive plays. That’s not something any defense can do. The Lions are going to allow them. It’s going to happen.
What I really wanted to know was what comes after. So I looked up the next play following every single explosive the Lions have allowed this season.
Here’s what I found. Of those explosive plays that didn’t immediately produce a touchdown, Detroit allowed 2 yards or fewer on the very next snap 15 times.
That tells you the Lions have at least been able to adjust a little bit after getting burned. It’s not a gigantic adjustment. Again, teams still scored on 18 of the 21 possessions that featured an explosive play. The bleeding hasn’t stopped. But the defense isn’t completely falling apart in the moment, either.
The Arizona game offers a blueprint
That’s why the win over Arizona stood out. That’s where you saw what this defense can look like when it limits the big stuff.
Now, we’ll give the Cardinals a little slack here. Coming into that game, Arizona was last in the league in creating explosive plays. Their offense was the worst at it.
I know a lot of people want to brush that off because it’s the Cardinals. That team just beat the Los Angeles Rams, though, and the Rams were the group everyone was crowning as Super Bowl champions after two blockbuster trades this offseason. That’s a conversation for another day.
I thought the Lions played a great game defensively against Arizona. That being said, I don’t think that’s necessarily what this defense is going to look like every week, and I think the Lions may feel the same way.
At this point, you’re just trying to find ways to win. The Lions’ offense can put up a ton of points. The defense doesn’t need to be dominant. It needs to allow a few fewer explosive plays and make a few fewer mistakes with penalties and the other little things.
Can Detroit do just enough to get by? I think it can. If anything, Sunday showed the Lions have that ability when they play the defense they know they can play.
Trimming the number could have flipped results
So I’m curious. What if the Lions took that number of 28 and bumped it down by 20% or 25%? What if they brought it down to something like 22?
If Detroit had allowed six or eight fewer explosive plays, are we talking about a win over the Carolina Panthers? Maybe. Probably, actually. That game was close enough that the Lions likely could have pulled it out.
What about the games against New York and New Orleans? I think those look completely different. Both of those games went the way they did because of explosive plays that didn’t need to happen.
The good thing is help is on the way. The Lions are getting Brian Branch back, and that is huge. Maybe a trade could come at some point too, though we don’t know what that would look like.
If the Lions can clean up a few things, I think they’re going to be fine. Maybe you could even start thinking about playoff success again.
The next test is a big one. Green Bay is tied for ninth in the NFL in explosive plays on offense. The Packers are getting the ball downfield. I’m interested to see how Detroit handles it.
We’ll find out.
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