Is it time to hit the panic button on Sam Darnold’s turnover issues?
Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is tied for the league lead in interceptions despite missing nearly two full games. Is it time to panic?
The reigning champions had themselves a rough night on Thursday night. A trip to Mile High on a short week saw the Seattle Seahawks sleepwalk through the first three quarters of the game against the Denver Broncos.
Then? An 11 point fourth quarter served up all the momentum in the world going into overtime. And then? An all-too-familiar development this season. A Sam Darnold interception. The turnover put the game-winning kick on a silver platter for the Broncos. It was Darnold’s seventh interception of the season, tying him for the most in the league. So…is it time to panic over the turnovers?
Sam Darnold’s turnover regression is extreme, even for his career standards
I’ll make this quick. Yes. Push the button.
This is an unsettling turn of events that should warrant legitimate concern. The fastest way to undo an elite defensive performance, as Seattle found out last night, is to turn the ball over in bunches. The Seahawks were even bailed out by Darnold’s first interception by a bone-headed throwaway by Broncos QB Bo Nix that preserved the team’s final timeout in the final two minutes of regulation.
Now I will say this: not all of Darnold’s interceptions are entirely his fault. The one thrown targeting WR Tory Horton last night is a great example; as his route drifted upwards and allowed the defender to undercut the route across the middle of the field. His first against Washington was a ball batted into the air by Commanders DL Tim Settle.
But Sam Darnold’s always been a little loose with the football. He’s got a 3.0% interception rate on career pass attempts. Aaron Rodgers’ career mark is less than half of that at 1.4%. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are both under 2.0% for their careers. Darnold’s mark is incrementally higher than former Seahawks QB Geno Smith’s career mark (2.6%), too.
This season? It’s currently sitting at 4.7% after Week 6! His 149 attempts is a small sample size; so he’s got time to correct course. But the completion percentage is down, the efficiency is down, and the turnovers are up. Way up. Seattle is averaging nearly three turnovers per game over the past month. And Darnold is responsible for 7 interceptions in four games.
Klint Kubiak is in Las Vegas. The Seahawks have lost as many football games as they did all of last year and we’re two weeks out from Halloween. And Darnold’s regression has his numbers looking more like the New York Jets version of himself. I do believe Seattle will, eventually, be fine. But it’s time to start getting worried about Sam Darnold’s turnovers.
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