Here comes the reality check for BYU. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish travel to face the BYU Cougars this weekend, ESPN’s College GameDay will be on site, and this is the college football game of the week. I completely understand the hype. It is still going to be the Fighting Irish who win this football game.

And the biggest reason why comes down to one name that won’t be on the field. It sucks that LJ Martin is not in this game. You need a guy like him to win a game like this, and BYU doesn’t have him.

Bear Bachmeier can’t do this alone for BYU

Now, I get it. Bear Bachmeier is really fun to watch. He wears No. 47, and he plays almost like Tim Tebow. He will take every hit possible, peel himself off the turf, and go right back at you on the next snap. That kind of toughness wins over a locker room and a fanbase.

But one guy isn’t going to win you this game. Without Martin, BYU is relying solely on Bachmeier to create plays and run the football against Notre Dame. Is that a recipe you trust against a defense this good? I don’t.

And you may say, Tegan, you’re sleeping on that BYU defense. I’m not. The Cougars are physical, and they hit hard. I watched that entire Iowa State game, and that is a grown man defense. That is a defense that will punch you in the mouth, and it is more than capable of keeping this thing competitive for a while.

The talent gap shows up in the second half for Notre Dame

Here’s the problem. BYU just doesn’t scale.

This reminds me a lot of the Texas Tech game last season. BYU can beat up on a lot of the Big 12, but it hasn’t shown it can scale up and knock off the top dogs when the talent gap gets this wide. Physicality gets you through most of your schedule. Against a roster like Notre Dame’s, it buys you time. It doesn’t buy you a win.

The way I see the game script, the first half is going to be competitive. This is a physical, grown-man football game, and I think it takes Notre Dame a little bit to settle in on the road in that environment. Don’t be surprised if it’s tight at halftime.

But Notre Dame’s rushing offense has finally been figured out. I think the Irish create enough plays, especially in the second half, to pull away late, and that’s where the absence of Martin really hurts BYU. When your offense runs through one player, the other team only has to solve one problem. Notre Dame will solve it.

I just don’t think BYU can get to 20 points in this game. That’s my number.

Don’t buy the trendy upset

BYU is going to be a trendy upset pick. Big atmosphere, GameDay in town, and a narrative that no one believes Notre Dame is any good. I understand why people are lining up behind the Cougars.

But here’s what that narrative ignores. Notre Dame has one of the best defenses and one of the best offensive lines in the entire country, and that combination wins you a ton of football games. It wins you ugly ones, it wins you road games, and it wins you exactly the kind of grind this game is going to be.

I’m not a believer that BYU, without LJ Martin, keeps this competitive for four quarters. Give me a close first half, Notre Dame pulling away late, and BYU being stuck under 20 points. That’s the reality check, and I feel good about it.