The Seattle Seahawks will soon have to make a significant decision about quarterback Sam Darnold. One specific detail in his contract makes the situation even more intriguing for Seattle. Darnold has not come close to matching his level from last season, and the Seahawks’ quarterback outlook for 2027 is suddenly far less settled than it looked a few months ago.

Darnold’s passer rating went from 99.1 last season to 77.4 to start this one. He has seven touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Several factors explain the drop, but that doesn’t reduce the stakes of the front office’s decision.

Darnold has been a below average QB in 2026

Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranks 28th in adjusted EPA per play, 23rd in success rate, 19th in completion percentage over expectation, and 20th in air yards. By most measures, he has been a below average starter.

The situation gets more intriguing because backup Drew Lock played well when he got his chance. That is a limited sample size, of course. Still, it adds to the conversation around the position.

The Seahawks’ lack of a running game has allowed opposing defenses to play lighter boxes, and Darnold has had a tough time attacking those structures. That isn’t entirely on the quarterback, but that hasn’t stopped the questions.

Contract flexibility for 2027

The Seahawks have plenty of financial flexibility with Darnold. When Seattle gave him a three-year, $100.5 million contract last year, the only guaranteed money was the signing bonus plus his 2025 salary. Darnold is slated to make $35.5 million next year, but none of it is guaranteed.

The key date for Seattle is the fifth league day of 2027. That’s when a $10 million roster bonus kicks in for Darnold.

ESPN’s Dan Graziano raised the possibility in a recent analysis that the Seahawks could move on from Darnold next year if the rest of the season doesn’t go well. He also highlighted how the timeline differs from a year ago:

“What’s interesting to me is that this is a different setup than Darnold had last offseason, when $17.5 million of his 2026 compensation became guaranteed on the fifth day after the Super Bowl. That was a no-brainer, of course, since Seattle won the Super Bowl with him five days earlier. But if this season doesn’t go as well (the Seahawks are 3-3, and only Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions than Darnold’s seven), Seattle has four more weeks to make the decision on Darnold than it did a year ago.” — Dan Graziano.

If the Seahawks release Darnold next offseason, they would carry $19.2 million in dead money, which could be split across two years with a post-June 1 designation. Even without that designation, though, Seattle would still open up $22.7 million in cap space, since Darnold’s projected 2027 cap hit is $41.9 million.

No clear replacement on the roster

Moving on from Darnold raises an obvious follow-up question: who replaces him? The Seahawks don’t have a clear answer in the building.

Darnold is under contract through 2027. Lock, the immediate backup, is in a contract year after signing a one-year deal. Seattle also has former third-round pick Jalen Milroe, who is in the second year of his rookie contract and under contract through 2028.

Milroe has no significant experience, though. He appeared in three games last season without attempting a single pass, finishing with three rushing attempts for four yards and a fumble. So far, he hasn’t shown enough to suggest he could become the long-term starter in Seattle.

The ideal scenario for the Seahawks is that Darnold gets back to his 2025 production, or at least that level of efficiency. If that doesn’t happen, Seattle has a realistic path to move on from him next offseason, and the extra weeks built into this deal give the front office more time to make that call.