The Houston Cougars and Utah Utes are both pushing hard to be the team that likely gets to face off against Texas Tech or BYU in the Big 12 Championship this year. This Saturday’s matchup will set the stage for the rest of the year for both squads.

Not only will this game decide who goes to the Big 12 Championship, but it almost assuredly impacts how many Big 12 teams qualify for the College Football Playoff (one or two versus perhaps as many as three). High stakes.

Our A to Z Sports team of college football staff decided to tackle this massive match together to see how it should plays out. Let’s dive in.

Houston 30, Utah 27 (OT)

Conner Weigman has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation this season. He’s top five in EPA per play, QBR, Passer Rating, and adds value with his legs too. He also ranks first in passing touchdowns among power conference quarterbacks. The question is, will Weigman’s elite play be enough to beat Utah?

The Utes have been phenomenal this season on defense, allowing no more than 24 points in a single game all year, deploying a variety of significant schematic choices specific to shutting down each opponent. However, they haven’t played a single decent quarterback thus far. How will they adjust? And can quarterback Devon Dampier’s dual-threat skill set continue to be a problem for Houston?

The Cougars have been elite on rush defense specifically, shutting down mobile quarterbacks, so they match up well against the Utes on paper. Both teams will likely find ways to frustrate each other early. I predict regulation ends with a tie, 24-24. Dampier manages to lead the Utes to a field goal in overtime, but Weigman walks it off with a game-winning touchdown to star wide receiver Amare Thomas.

– Travis May, College Football Managing Editor

Utah 31, Houston 28

If these two teams were in the SEC, everyone would be talking about this matchup. The Cougars have the No. 1 offense per adjusted EPA per play thanks to Conner Weigman. He’s finally living up to the five-star status he had coming out of high school.

Even with that, the Utes are a more balanced team. They rank 14th in adjusted EPA per play on offense while ranking 48th on defense. The Cougars rank 85th, which I think will be the biggest factor. The two-quarterback system that the Utes use will make one more play that elevates them to the win in Salt Lake City.

– Tyler Forness, A to Z Florida

Houston 37, Utah 34

Before the season, it didn’t seem likely that a contest between the Cougars and Utes would have major Big 12 consequences, but here we are, with College Gameday set to be in attendance as well. I have no idea what Utah was doing on Saturday night in Boulder, Colorado, but they’re lucky to have escaped with a narrow 27-24 win over a flat-out bad Colorado team.

I think Conner Weigman is the difference maker here. He out-dueled likely first round pick Drew Mestemaker last week in a 35-32 Houston win over Oklahoma State, finishing with 343 yards and five touchdowns. In a back and forth affair, I like him delivering a late scoring drive to escape Salt Lake City with a massive win.

– Craig Smith, A to Z Miami

Utah 38, Houston 34

Utah survives a shootout against Houston, pulling out a 38-34 victory in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. The Utes have the offensive firepower to keep pace with just about anyone, led by quarterback Devon Dampier, whose ability to make plays with his arm and legs makes him difficult to contain. Running back Wayshawn Parker will be a major factor, giving Utah a physical presence between the tackles while also providing a big-play threat. Houston has been tough against the run, so Dampier’s decision-making and ability to create outside the pocket will be especially important. I expect Utah to find success through the air with Braden Pegan making an impact, while the Utes use their versatility to put together several scoring drives.

Houston won’t go down without a fight, especially with Conner Weigman coming off a huge performance against Oklahoma State in which he threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns. Weigman has developed into one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the Big 12, and his connection with wide receiver Amare Thomas gives the Cougars a legitimate chance to exploit Utah’s secondary. Houston has enough offensive talent to test the Utes in ways they haven’t experienced all season, and I expect the Cougars to keep the pressure on until the final minutes. Ultimately, Utah’s home-field advantage at Rice-Eccles Stadium and the playmaking ability of Dampier prove to be the difference. The Utes make one more key stop late, hold off Houston’s comeback attempt and remain undefeated with a thrilling 38-34 win.

– Ryan Roberts, A to Z Notre Dame

Houston 33, Utah 27

This is arguably the second-best game of the slate behind Ole Miss and Texas on Saturday, and the stakes are high. A second loss will likely eliminate the Cougars from meaningful postseason play, and one loss before a Big 12 championship certainly wouldn’t help Utah. Conner Weigman has not so quietly put together a fantastic season, and he is looking to continue that on the biggest of stages. I’m expecting a Big 12 game with an old school Pac-12 flair.

A high-scoring late-night treat for those on the east coast with high stakes? I like it. Give me Cougars to pull off the upset.

– Rob Gregson, A to Z Alabama

Final Prediction for Houston vs. Utah

Our staff is completely torn on this one. On average, our staff has Houston winning this game 32-31 by razor-thin margins. Not a single one of us expects this game to be spread by even a full touchdown. Sportsbooks still favor Utah by about 6 or 6.5 thanks to the tough home environment and undefeated record (against nobody), but the A to Z Sports crew believes the Cougars can get it done, even if it takes overtime.