Betting the Cowboys: Odds, trends and pick for playoff matchup vs 49ers

It's time for playoff football! The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers will add another chapter to their historic postseason rivalry. We dive in to find a betting angle! The odds Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115)Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -165 / Philadelphia Eagles +145Total: 50.5 Public betting: Fans fading the Cowboys! The Dallas Cowboys are […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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It's time for playoff football! The Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers will add another chapter to their historic postseason rivalry. We dive in to find a betting angle!

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -165 / Philadelphia Eagles +145
  • Total: 50.5

Public betting: Fans fading the Cowboys!

The Dallas Cowboys are in an unusual spot. Three things usually translate into the public's backing: 1) Being the favorite, 2) being the home team, and 3) being the most popular franchise in the NFL. Although the Cowboys meet all of these criteria, they're being faded by the public.

Per Action Network, 59% of the bets are on the San Francisco 49ers. That might have to do with recent results, as the 49ers earned a playoff berth with a dramatic win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. Plus, they rank in the top 10 of plenty of key statistical categories.

Trends

  • 49ers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games as an underdog.
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
  • Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
  • Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
  • Over is 8-3 in Cowboys' last 11 home games.
  • Under is 8-3 in the Cowboys' last 11 games overall.

The pick: Cowboys make a statement

Make no mistake about it, this should be a close game. The San Francisco 49ers are healthy a legit threat in the NFC and the Dallas Cowboys have a tall task at hand. But I've been surprised at the tone of national media surrounding this game. The Cowboys' offensive slump has raised some legit concerns, but that has likely forced some to overlook two things:

  1. The Cowboys still have one of the most efficient defenses in the league with game-changing players like Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.
  2. Dak Prescott and company still have the ceiling of an elite offense if Kellen Moore plays his cards right.

I believe there's no better stat to prove that than early-down efficiency. In it, you can still find evidence of what the Cowboys want their offense to be. Using Ben Baldwin's stats, the Cowboys rank #4 in both passing and running the football in early downs.

Against a defense that's vulnerable against the pass, the Cowboys should be able to perform well. This game will be all about pass protection. One would expect Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Cedrick Wilson to get open often. The question is whether or not the Cowboys' offensive line will give Dak Prescott enough time to figure out the 49ers' disguise in coverage.

If they win said battle, the Cowboys' offense should put this team on track for a win. Keep in mind, this offensive line might be the most underrated unit for the Cowboys as PFF just named it the best OL in the NFL.

Forcing the 49ers out of their creative running game is the key to a victory as Jimmy Garoppolo is prone to turnover-worthy plays. I trust Dak Prescott more than I do Jimmy G. I've got the Cowboys making a statement on this one.

The bet: Cowboys -3 (-115)

Season bets: 10-7 (59%)

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

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