The Dallas Cowboys are playing on Sunday Night Football! They're facing the struggling Indianapolis Colts and are large favorites in the betting world. We know Mike McCarthy's squad is expected to win but what's the best bet to make?

Last weekend, the Cowboys were also double-digit favorites but we sought an alternative in fear of a backdoor cover which ended up happening on Thanksgiving. We could be on a similar path today.

This season, we're 10-1 (!!!) on this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys, which is also a segment on my nightly show A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime which you can check out here.

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys -10.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts +400 / Dallas Cowboys -500
• Total: 44.5

The public is split on this one

The Cowboys are getting 51% of the bets, per Action Network. The look-ahead betting spread for this one was at nine points which suggests a big win by Dallas and a tough loss by Indy is the factor that moved the market ahead of tonight's showdown.

Trends

• Under is 6-2 in the Cowboys' last 8 home games
• Under is 8-1 in the Colts' last 9 road games.
• The Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games overall.

The pick: Cowboys win a low-scoring affair

The Cowboys defense is a mismatch for the Colts offense. Matt Ryan plays under one of the very worst offensive lines in the NFL and is unable to make up for it as his offense is 27th in EPA/play when pressured.

On Sunday Night, he'll face Micah Parsons and co. without his starting right tackle and with a rookie at left tackle. While Bernhard Raimann (RT) has been decent this year, he's also been costly in high-leverage situations.

And while much has been made about the Cowboys defense struggling against the run, they remain a top 10 unit in DVOA and success rate while Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' rushing offense is actually one of the worst in the league.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will be facing a talented and well-coached Gus Bradley defense that's been great at limiting explosive plays. Turns out the "Cover 3 or die" defensive coordinator has modernized his defense and now plays Quarters coverage, too!

Dak Prescott and his offense will likely take a more patient approach to this game. Give me the under as the safest bet this weekend.

The bet: UNDER 44.5

Season bets: 10-1

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports