Evaluating if this is Tony Pollard's last season with the Cowboys
The rise of the data revolution in the NFL is almost proportionate to the steep decline of the running back market, as highlighted by recent events around the league. That includes the recent release of Ezekiel Elliott by the Dallas Cowboys. Three months removed from it, another question is worth posing regarding the same team […]
The rise of the data revolution in the NFL is almost proportionate to the steep decline of the running back market, as highlighted by recent events around the league. That includes the recent release of Ezekiel Elliott by the Dallas Cowboys.
Three months removed from it, another question is worth posing regarding the same team that signed Zeke to a $90 million deal in 2019: Will they take a significantly different approach with RB Tony Pollard next year or not?
Let's dive into everything that will play into the decision when the time comes.
Pollard's current situation with the Cowboys
As of right now, Pollard is set to play under the franchise tag for the chunky sum of $10.9 million for the 2023 season. That mark would make him the seventh highest-paid running back in the league and he's set to be the highest-paid running back in terms of cash received for the year.
The Cowboys and the fifth-year veteran have until July 17th to reach a contract extension. If the parties fail to do so, Pollard would have to play under the tag he already signed.
What's going on in the rest of the NFL?
While Pollard quickly ensured his payday by signing the tag placed on him earlier in the year, the running back market has been more hostile around the league. Saquon Barkley (Giants) and Josh Jacobs (Raiders) haven't signed theirs as training camp gets closer and closer. Players usually withhold signing the tag as leverage in contract negotiations with their respective teams.
Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook – with four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to his name – was released by the Minnesota Vikings even though he was due a salary of only $10.4M with a low figure of $2M in guaranteed salary.
What about Miles Sanders? The former Philadelphia Eagle averaged 4.9 yards per attempt as he racked up 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Surely that had to result in a juicy extension, right?
Not quite. The Eagles let him become a free agent as the Carolina Panthers landed him for just $6.35 million.
In other words, if you're a running back – successful or not – you aren't likely to reset the market or land among the highest paid in the NFL as it happens at other positions. And if you're a front office, numbers will likely show you you're better off investing your resources elsewhere. Thus, the question:
Will the Cowboys and Tony Pollard stick together beyond 2023?
While I hate to say "it depends," it really does. If Pollard has the year the Cowboys hope he does and becomes a true RB1 with over 1,000 yards and contributes to the passing game, he might be interested in breaking the bank.
If that's the case, it's tough to see how the same team that needs to extend Trevon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Dak Prescott, and Micah Parsons (who they can start negotiating with until 2024) reset the market with a running back.
Chances are they don't want to do anything to do with a long-term extension for a running back after having signed one in 2019 that they moved on from a few years later.
If I had to take a guess, I'd say it could be the last year of Pollard in Dallas. I fully expect him to have the best season of his career, which would give him significant leverage next offseason. But right now, I consider the Cowboys have many other priorities and don't expect a "hometown discount."
However, things could play in the Cowboys' favor. If the RB market stays in the seeming decline it is right now, perhaps Pollard doesn't even look for a huge extension in the first place.
For now, the top concern regarding the running back is whether or not he'll be able to take his game to the next level as he's promoted from co-star of the offense to the star.
Featured image via Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports