ESPN uses math to predict the winner of Tennessee Vols vs Georgia Bulldogs
There are plenty of predictions flying around this week for the big showdown between the No. 1 Tennessee Vols and the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs. Most of those predictions, however, are subjective. They're just opinions from folks like myself based on what we've seen so far this season. How the game actually plays out will […]
There are plenty of predictions flying around this week for the big showdown between the No. 1 Tennessee Vols and the No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs.
Most of those predictions, however, are subjective. They're just opinions from folks like myself based on what we've seen so far this season. How the game actually plays out will likely be wildly different from the predictions we've seen this week.
The prediction from ESPN's Football Power Index, though, isn't subjective. The FPI uses math and simulations to try to determine who will win a game.
Here's ESPN's explanation of the Football Power Index:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.
Last week, ESPN's Football Power Index had Tennessee beating Kentucky by 13.4 points. The Vols ended up winning 44-6.
This week, the FPI isn't on Tennessee's side.
Instead, it has Georgia winning by 9.3 points.
Not what you want to hear if you're a Vols fan. Of course, the game still has to be played and there are variables that math and simulations can't account for fully. There's also the fact that ESPN's FPI gave Alabama a 69.4 percent chance of beating Tennessee last month (so it's not infallible).
Ultimately, the players on the field will decide the game, not computers or talking heads.
But it's always interesting to see how the FPI predicts the game. We'll see how close they were to being right a little over 24 hours from now (depending on when you read this of course).
Featured image via Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports