Final score predictions for Oklahoma vs. Tennessee: Which team will stay alive in the College Football Playoff race?

It’s basically a de facto elimination game in Knoxville between the Sooners and the Vols.

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The Tennessee Volunteers and the Oklahoma Sooners meet on Saturday night in Knoxville in a battle of two-loss teams with playoff implications on the line. Tennessee (6-2, 3-2) comes into the matchup on the heels of a 56-34 win over the Kentucky Wildcats last weekend. Meanwhile, Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2) enters the matchup off a 34-26 loss to Ole Miss in Norman, where the Sooners couldn’t hold onto a 26-25 lead in the fourth quarter.

The books have made the Vols a 3.5-point favorite with a 55.5-point total as of Thursday before the game. Let’s see if our A to Z Sports and Oklahoma staff writers agree.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee football series

  • Overall series record: Oklahoma leads 3-2
  • Latest matchup: Tennessee 25, Oklahoma 15 (9/21/24)
  • Tennessee 2025 offensive/defensive ranks (ppg): 2nd (45.6 ppg); T-112th (30.9)
  • Oklahoma 2025 offensive/defensive ranks (ppg): 73rd (23.4); 5th (12.5 ppg)

Tennessee 31, Oklahoma 27

I’m not so sure that the Oklahoma Sooners will fix their offensive issues this season, let alone on the road in one of the toughest game environments possible. But they did score 26 points last week, albeit against a bad Ole Miss defense, so who’s to say they can’t score 27?

They found something in the run game with Xavier Robinson, and maybe this time they don’t go away from him. However, as long as John Mateer is making the same mistakes he’s been making, none of that will matter. Tennessee has an explosive offense, and OU’s offense will continue to put its defense in bad situations. Tennessee wins this game in a close one. – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Tennessee 37, Oklahoma 30

This might as well be known as the “something’s gotta give” game. Tennessee has one of the most dynamic offenses in the nation. Oklahoma, meanwhile, has one of the stingiest defenses in the nation. Conversely, the Vols’ defense hasn’t held an SEC team under 30 points yet this season. The Sooners, however, haven’t scored more than 26 points in an SEC game this fall.

I think there’s a good chance Oklahoma scores more than 26 against Tennessee’s feast or famine defense, but I don’t think the Sooners can outscore the Vols. – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee

Tennessee 28, Oklahoma 17

The pressure is on for the Oklahoma Sooners in this one. Win, and the heat dies down on Brett Venables’ seat as head coach of Oklahoma. Lose, and the Sooners are staring down the barrel of another disappointing season, and the hot seat catches fire. This won’t be an easy one, however, as playing at Rocky Top at night is as dangerous an environment as there is, and the Vols’ offense has proven it can score on anyone.

Oklahoma and Venables solved Tennessee’s offense last year, but quarterback turnovers doomed any hope they had of pulling off the upset. Given Tennessee’s struggling defense and high-flying offense, this will come down to Mateer making the throws he needs to make for the Sooners’ offense to keep up, and Mateer hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt over his last four games.

I think Oklahoma can keep it close to start with an improving ground game and elite defense, but Tennessee pulls away late. AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

Tennessee 30, Oklahoma 27

This is a game of desperation for both teams, as they have two losses each and cannot afford a third if they want to remain in the College Football Playoff race. The game is at Neyland Stadium, with a night kickoff, and Tennessee will be wearing their “dark mode” uniforms.

Those are not insignificant factors, as Tennessee typically plays well under those conditions. Tennessee’s offense and Oklahoma’s defense are potent units, but Tennessee’s passing game has been tough for just about anyone to slow down this season, and that will continue on Saturday. Joey Aguilar will hit a number of big plays to his talented trio of Chris Brazzell II, Mike Matthews, and Braylon Staley.

Mateer and the OU offense will get theirs against what’s been a vulnerable Tennessee defense this year, but they’ll stall a couple of times too many down the stretch as the Vols eke out a huge win at home. – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Tennessee

In summary, it appears the consensus among our staff is that Tennessee will win a close, relatively high-scoring game. Given Tennessee’s explosive offense and questionable defense, coupled with OU’s capable defense, the game appears ripe for a showing that has a good number of points but perhaps doesn’t quite enter full shootout range.

We’ll find out when toe meets leather a little bit after 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night.