Longtime college football talk show host Paul Finebaum isn’t optimistic about the Tennessee Vols’ chances of reaching the College Football Playoff in 2026.

Finebaum, a Tennessee graduate and one of the more negative voices in college football, joined McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning on Monday, and he discussed the current state of Tennessee football.

Paul Finebaum gets real about Josh Heupel and the Tennessee Vols

Finebaum thinks the Vols are going to take a step back in 2026 after going 8-5 in 2025.

He also mentioned during his appearance that he thinks it’s “remarkable” that Vols head coach Josh Heupel “got away” with going 8-5 last season.

“I think so,” said Finebaum when asked if Tennessee is heading for a downturn in 2026. “And I think what’s really remarkable is that Heupel got away with what I thought was a pretty rough season last year. But I think one reason he got away with it was what happened a year ago.

“A year ago, we were talking about Nico (Iamaleava) leaving and how Josh Heupel has done the right thing, and he probably deserves a pass. I’m not saying fans gave him one, but considering how poorly that team played at the end of the season, how bad they looked at home against Oklahoma and against Vanderbilt, and in the bowl game (against Illinois), I think fans are pretty realistic there… I would totally agree with you that there is not a great deal of confidence in that team being anywhere near the playoffs.”

“I just think that Tennessee fans like a lot of what they’ve seen,” added Finebaum. “But I think we could just as easily pick out the problems with this program. This is why I believe — not to put pressure on Josh Heupel — but this is a pivotal year, because if he follows up a disappointing season with another one, then all of a sudden, the questions start coming pretty fast.

“Tennessee fans, I can’t explain why they’re in a more forgiving mood than they used to be, but I think it’s the fact that they’ve gone through (Derek) Dooley, (Jeremy) Pruitt, and Butch Jones and so many downs that they feel like at least this guy is not going to embarrass the program or just humiliate us. And that’s not really a great answer, but right now, he’s the best one they’ve had in a long time.”

Tennessee certainly didn’t play well to end the 2025 season, but Heupel made some big changes this offseason in response. He fired defensive coordinator Tim Banks and replaced him with a national champion in Jim Knowles. Heupel also swiped the strength coach from Indiana despite the Hoosiers winning the national championship last season.

One thing that Finebaum doesn’t understand about sports is that every year doesn’t always go to plan. Only one team is standing at the end of the year, and usually that team experiences some good fortune (while battling through inevitable adversity). Everyone else comes up short. And coming up short, by the way, looks different for every program, depending on what they faced through the course of the season.

Each year is its own story. That’s true now more than ever thanks to the way rosters transform from year to year. Just because a team won only eight games the year before doesn’t mean they can’t go to the playoff a year later (Oklahoma went from six wins in 2024 to the playoff in 2025).

Finebaum doesn’t even know who Tennessee’s starting quarterback will be in 2026. So for him to be making a playoff prediction for the Vols in mid-April isn’t just silly, it’s plain nonsense.