The Tennessee Vols are not viewed as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender heading into the 2026 season. 

And that’s more than fair.

A Tennessee team starting a freshman quarterback, coming off an 8-5 season, and lacking a roster loaded with future first-round draft picks doesn’t scream playoff contender on paper. I get it. There are other teams that certainly look better positioned to compete for a playoff spot.

But that doesn’t mean it’ll play out that way.

The 12-team College Football Playoff era has changed everything

We’ve seen teams in the past that weren’t predicted to make the playoff end up making it. Nobody thought Indiana was going to win a national championship last season. Brent Venables was on the hot seat at Oklahoma after going 6-7 in 2024, and then the Sooners made the playoff in 2025.

In this era of college football — where rosters change dramatically from year to year and depth is hard to build — there’s more parity in the sport than ever. And that means it’s incredibly difficult to predict who’s going to do what each fall.

The reality is that anything before the 12-team playoff doesn’t matter anymore. The reputations and history of programs is nice to talk about while sitting beside your buddy at the bar (people still do that, right?), but it’s not indicative of what’s going to happen in the future. 

The 3 games that will determine if Tennessee is a College Football Playoff team

While I think it’s unlikely the Vols will make the playoff in 2026, I do think there’s a path, and it’s not as difficult as you may think.

The SEC moved to a 9-game conference schedule this season, which does make things tougher (I still don’t understand why the SEC was so adamant about that move when it doesn’t seem to benefit them in any way, especially when you think about the playoff). At this point, we don’t know how the committee will calibrate its selection process now that the SEC has added a ninth game (I’m sure that will be debated plenty this fall). 

With that said, I think there are three games that will determine whether Tennessee makes the playoff or not.

1. At Georgia Tech on Sept. 12: Tennessee has to win this game. You cannot start the season with a non-conference loss that early. Georgia Tech is always tough, and it’s a night game on the road with a young quarterback in either Faizon Brandon or George MacIntyre. It won’t be easy. But it’s a must-win for playoff purposes. 
2. At home against Alabama on Oct. 17: I think Tennessee has to win this one. It would be one of the Vols’ signature wins. It’s a home game, and I think Tennessee needs to beat Alabama to get into the playoff.
3. At home against LSU on Nov. 21: Tennessee has to win this game for sure. The Tigers will be one of the better teams in the SEC. It’s a home game and it would be another signature win. 

I think it’s okay if Tennessee loses to Texas at home on Sept. 26. The Vols will have a young quarterback in his first SEC game without the night-time home-field advantage. Historically, the noon start is a little easier for the road team (just ask LSU after they got smacked by Tennessee in Baton Rouge early in the day in 2022). I also don’t think there’s anything wrong with losing at Texas A&M on Nov. 14. That’s a tough place to play, and it’s hard to win on the road in the SEC.

The rest of the SEC schedule (home against Auburn, at Arkansas, at South Carolina, home against Kentucky, and at Vanderbilt) won’t be gimme games. At South Carolina has been a house of horrors for Tennessee. Vanderbilt beat the Vols in Knoxville last season (though the Commodores don’t have Diego Pavia this year, and I’m not sold on them picking up where they left off). Those are five games that Tennessee should be favored in, and if the Vols don’t win them, they’re not a playoff team. It’s as simple as that.

There are going to be playoff-caliber teams that don’t make it. We saw it last season. Texas, Notre Dame, and Vanderbilt were all playoff-caliber teams that didn’t get in. There are only 12 spots, and there will be more than 12 teams worthy of a bid. I’m a big believer that results don’t tell the full story of how good a team is, but there have to be tiebreakers at some point.

That’s why I think those three games (at Georgia Tech, home against Alabama, and home against LSU) are the ones that can propel Tennessee into the playoff this season.