ESPN analyst predicts slight step back for the Bears, but expects major growth from the offense and the team’s rising stars
The Chicago Bears are heading into the second season under head coach Ben Johnson and while the upcoming schedule has challenges, the offense is projected to remain a top-caliber unit in 2026.
With the 2026 NFL schedule now officially released, the next speculative part of the NFL offseason involves projecting the individual statistical seasons for various players. ESPN’s Mike Clay always does a great job at this and recently released his 2026 projections, which includes some big things for the Chicago Bears’ offense.
For starters, Clay did project some regression for Chicago, which seems to be a common theme among national analysts. Clay’s projects had Chicago’s win total at 9.3 coming off an 11-win season, which ranked 16th in the NFL.
What isn’t expected to regress as much is the team’s offensive potential going into the second season under head coach Ben Johnson.
Chicago Bears 2026 Offensive Statistical Projections
Caleb Williams’ chase for 70 percent completion
Johnson set a high bar for quarterback Caleb Williams last season when he said he wants Williams to complete at least 70 percent of his passes. No qualified quarterback reached that mark in 2025, but Williams’ 58.1 completion percentage was far from ideal. And Johnson, rightfully, isn’t backing down from that goal and neither is his QB.
“If we want to be elite, we want to be that 70 [completion percentage] marker,” Johnson said. “We fell short of that. And we don’t shy away from that. I think when you look at it, for us to get to 65 percent completion even, cut that in half, we need to find 40 more completions over the course of the season.”
Well, let’s take a look at Clay’s projections. Clay had Williams completing 317 of his 528 passes in 2026 (60.0%). That’s still well below the bar with Clay projecting a regression in passing yards (3,821) and passing touchdowns (25) as well.
Rome Odunze the 1,000-yard WR1, Luther Burden III expected to be fed more, and a heavy dose of Colston Loveland
After all of the hype surrounding second-year WR Luther Burden III following the trade of DJ Moore, people are really overlooking third-year WR Rome Odunze. Odunze started the 2025 season on a heater and only slowed after suffering a stress fracture in his foot.
Going into 2026, Odunze will be fully healthy and eager to get more added to his plate as well following Moore’s exit. Clay’s projections have Odunze going over the 1,000-yard mark with 59 receptions and a team-high eight receiving touchdowns.
As for Burden, Clay is projecting much more involvement for him in Year 2 with 75 receptions on 113 targets for 938 yards and five touchdowns. By that logic, Burden is expected to get fed heavily on short passes.
The team’s leading pass catcher based on the reception projections, however, was second-year tight end Colston Loveland with 80 on 118 targets. Loveland is coming off a 713 yard season and projected to get a boost up to 868 yards with another six TDs. It’s worth noting that Clay projects 253 yards combined from TEs Cole Kmet and Sam Roush.
D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai projected to continue dominating on the ground, but still underrated
Clay has the Bears’ offense rushing for 1,819 yards which is the fifth-highest rushing total in the league based on his projections, coming off a season in which the Bears ranked third in the NFL with 2,456 rushing yards. The teams listed above the Bears were the Detroit Lions (2,007), Atlanta Falcons (1,931), Los Angeles Rams (1,907), and Baltimore Ravens (1,824).
I believe Clay is underrating Chicago’s rushing attack that essentially returns the same group (except for Garrett Bradbury / Logan Jones taking over at center and left tackle).
Looking at the individual projections, Clay did have D’Andre Swift (994) and Kyle Monangai (825) each going over 800+ rushing yards with 14 combined rushing TDs.
All things considered, this would be a solid offensive production from these rising players. But, I expect much more from this entire offense as a whole this upcoming season than what these projections show. Across the entire board, it seems pretty conservative.