Bears Schedule Release: NFL is trying to plant seeds of regression with facts that are hard to ignore, but Chicago should ignore it
As the Chicago Bears await the announcement of the 2026 schedule release, we have now learned that the team is projected to have the hardest strength of schedule in the entire league this upcoming season.
Thursday can’t seem to get here soon enough with the official announcement of the 2026 regular season schedule for all 32 teams, including the Chicago Bears.
A few games have been officially announced already has the league continues to slowly drip out the schedule ahead of the big reveal on Thursday night. On Wednesday, the league will also release the final international schedule, which is something the Bears should pay close attention to.
The Bears should also pay close attention to the newly released 2026 strength of schedule, as it won’t do the team any favors this upcoming season.
Chicago Bears will have the hardest strength of schedule – the stats say why it should matter
ESPN’s Adam Schefter posted the full rankings for the strength of schedule this upcoming season, which solely factors in the opponent’s win percentage from the 2025-26 season (and is void of a lot of context). Regardless, the Bears came in with the hardest strength of schedule in the league (.550) and that might concern some fans.
We expected this. Every team in the NFC North finished with a winning record last season, so that’s already six games against a winning team. Chicago will also be playing a first-place schedule after winning the NFC North.
To some fans, this is meaningless. You play who’s on your schedule and every year is a new year. While I agree with that logic, this stat doesn’t look good for Chicago.
“Since the NFL expanded to 17 games in 2021, the team that gets stuck playing the “hardest” first-place schedule has regressed by an average of four games per season. Last year, the team in this spot was the Lions. After going 15-2 in 2024, they had the hardest first-place schedule in 2025 and they dropped to 9-8.”
John Breech
CBS Sports
Why the Chicago Bears aren’t concerned about this
As I mentioned, teams change every year, so basing the strength of schedule off of the prior season’s win percentage isn’t the best indicator of how a team will be the following season. It’s something even Bears players are aware of.
“Last year is over with. The reality of the NFL is there are seven to nine new playoff teams every year,” veteran TE Cole Kmet explained. “This league, they want parity and they get their parity. We see that year to year and we’re not excused from that.”
To find improvement, the Bears will seemingly be put through the gauntlet this upcoming season. However, head coach Ben Johnson wouldn’t want to have it any other way.
“There is no building off of this,” Johnson said after last season. “We go back to square one. We’re back at the bottom again. That’s really all 32 teams. If you feel otherwise, you’re probably missing the big picture. We’re back at it. We’ve got to start from scratch.
“You can look at 2025 and say, ‘Hey, it’s a great start.’ Well, the truth is it was really hard to accomplish what we accomplished, and it wasn’t good enough and it’s going to be that much harder to put ourselves in that position again next season. There’s a lot of work coming up. I know our players, when they come back, they’ll be ready to go.”
The Bears aren’t concerned about the outside noise, prior trends, or strength of schedule. All they care about is who they play in Week 1 to begin preparations for the season and then whoever’s on the schedule after that is who they have to play.
And lastly, in the NFL, anything can happen any given Sunday. Don’t pay too much attention to this nonsense or any other strength of schedule rankings. You never know what to expect this upcoming season.