The smoke around a potential Tee Higgins extension is starting to look like a fire.

From the star receiver publicly endorsing his agent David Mulugheta, to the team's Twitter account making a habit of posting him every chance they get, it feels like something's imminent.

What's certain is that Higgins is in the team's plans for the long run, and the sooner they strike an agreement, the better. If a deal is on the horizon, what would it look like?

There are three main factors to considering when mapping out a long-term deal for one of the best players in the NFL. 

Average Annual Value (AAV)

What the public looks at first is how much money per year is the contract worth. This isn't always an accurate representation of how strong the deal is for two reasons. For starters, it can hide how the cash flow is constructed (more on that later). That also goes hand-in-hand with the fact that it sums up all the money that doesn't have to be paid to the player if certain circumstances arise. 

A $10 million per year deal over the course of four years comes out to $40 million in total value, but if just $12 million is guaranteed, the player will have to accept he may not see every penny of that $40 million. 

Right now, there are nine wide receiver contracts that exceed $23 million AAV. Here's all nine of them: 

Player	Team	2023 Age	AAV
Tyreek Hill	Dolphins	29	$30 million
Davante Adams	Raiders	31	$28 million
Deandre Hopkins	Cardinals	31	$27.25 million
Cooper Kupp	Rams	30	$26.7 million
A.J. Brown	Eagles	26	$25 million
Stefon Diggs	Bills	30	$24 million
D.K. Metcalf	Seahawks	26	$24 million
Deebo Samuel	49ers	27	$23.85 million
Terry McLaurin	Commanders	28	$23.2 million

The top of the receiver market took a leap last year. Out of these nine players, Deandre Hopkins was the only one who signed his deal before 2022. Higgins benefited from factors that weren't even in his control a year ahead of time.

Where will he fall in this spectrum? Well, he's not yet an All-Pro like Hill, Adams, Hopkins, or Kupp, and that will be brought up (if it hasn't already) in negotiations. He is closest in terms of age to Brown, Metcalf, and Samuel, but the fourth-year player is still at least two years younger than all of them. Those three make up the starting point for Higgins.

Projection: Between $24 and $26 million AAV

Full guarantees

This is what the agent and team really care about. Anything beyond fully guaranteed money that gets put into escrow is funny money. It's where the Bengals have been behind the times for the entire history of free agency, but things are set to change.

The Bengals flexed their liquidity when they signed Orlando Brown to a four-year, $64 million contract that included the largest signing bonus an offensive lineman has ever received. $31 million was guaranteed to Brown when he put pen to paper. 

Signing bonuses make up the vast majority of fully guaranteed amounts in contracts. Since we've narrowed down our range to three contracts, let's look at how much of those deals were fully guaranteed.

Player	AAV	Fully Guaranteed
Deebo Samuel	$23.85 million	$41 million
A.J. Brown	$25 million	$40 million
D.K. Metcalf	$24 million	$31 million

The fully guaranteed amounts listed are well below what each player reportedly received in total guarantees. For example, Metcalf received the largest signing bonus for a receiver ($30 million) in history, but more guarantees will trigger on his contract in the future if he's still on the team. These are practical guarantees since the team is planning on rostering him when the guarantees are activated.

But since they aren't fully guaranteed when he signs, we're not counting them. We deal with absolutes when it comes to securing the bag.

Metcalf's large signing bonus making up nearly 100% of his full guarantees is a great precedent for Higgins, after all, they did give A.J. Green a $26 million signing bonus back in 2015. The Bengals could top Metcalf's figure and guarantee his base salary for the 2023 season to get the guaranteed total in line with the market.  

Projection: Between $35 and $45 million

Length and cash flow 

Higgins' young works entirely in his favor here. He's entering a contract year at just 24 years of age, and if he plays this right, he can end up with two big pay days before he starts declining as a player.

For this reason, there's a good chance Higgins' camp will try to push for a three-year deal, so he can re-up on the market when he's 27. For reference, that's a year younger than Hill was when he reset the receiver market last year, and how old Samuel turned back in January. 

This may ultimately be the toughest part of the negotiation, because the Bengals will want to lock in Higgins for at least four years like they did Green eight years ago. To entice him, they may raise the AAV closer to Hopkins and Adams' level, with the obvious drawback that future cap hits will also increase. It's a safer bet they'll just compromise with a three-year deal.

Cash flow refers to how much, and how quickly, the money gets paid paid out every year of the deal. Brown, Metcalf, and Samuel all received at least $20 million in cash after the first year of their deals. The year two cash number is the total amount earned after that year of the deal, not the cash payment for that year alone.

Player	AAV	Cash After Year One	Cash After Year Two
D.K. Metcalf	$24 million	$26.78 million	$41 million
Deebo Samuel	$23.85 million	$20.83 million	32.08 million
A.J. Brown	$25 million	$20 million	$32 million

Interestingly enough, it seems Samuel's deal was negotiated with Brown's deal in mind, as it barely tops out the cash flows from the first two years. Metcalf, on the other hand, got an incredibly strong cash flow with essentially 57% of his deal being paid to him in the first two years.

This is around where I see Higgins' deal ending up. It would be the Bengals' way of compensating for not giving him substantially more guaranteed money than the other three received.

Tee Higgins Contract Projection

Add all of this up, and you're looking at a three-year deal worth about $25 million per year. Around $40 million will be fully guaranteed, as will the amount paid to him after the first two years of the deal.