3 overlooked reasons why the Dallas Cowboys won’t exceed win expectations in the 2026 NFL regular season
Every year, oddsmakers set win total projections for each NFL team. This year, it’s 9.5 for the Dallas Cowboys. Here are three not-so-obvious reasons why they could fall short of that mark.
The Dallas Cowboys projected win total sits at 9.5 games for the 2026 NFL season, a number that ticked up after the NFL schedule release (a sign that oddsmakers liked the Cowboys schedule).
With so many unknowns surrounding this roster, the case for both sides is compelling. In this article, we’re focusing on the reasons why the Cowboys will win under 9.5 games. I’ll do my best to avoid the obvious concerns we’ve discussed all year like linebacker, etc.
Let’s break it down.
Three reasons why Cowboys won’t exceed win total expectations
1. Cornerback plan hits worst case scenario
On paper, the Cowboys have a strong cornerback room. Daron Bland is an All-Pro. Cobie Durant was one of their most significant free agency additions. Shavon Revel Jr. was once viewed as a first-round talent who slipped only because of injury.
In reality, things look different. Bland’s best version hasn’t been around since 2023 after back-to-back foot surgeries. Durant is a decent corner, but he’s not a shutdown player. The Rams made upgrading at the position one of their biggest offseason priorities after Durant left, and that wasn’t because he was bad. He just wasn’t special.
There’s also the Caleb Downs question at nickel. Our own Joe DeLeone from A to Z Sports Giants raised a valid concern about Downs when he appeared on the last April. He noted that Downs didn’t see much nickel man-coverage work at Ohio State, where he played free safety, in the box, and some nickel, but rarely in man assignments.
If the corners have holes and Dallas lacks an elite pass rush to compensate, this defense could struggle to improve.
2. The NFC East is no cakewalk
The Philadelphia Eagles remain a complete roster with a great defense, a solid offensive line, and Saquon Barkley. Even with questions about Jalen Hurts without A.J. Brown (assuming he’s traded to New England as reports have indicated), Philadelphia is a tough opponent.
The Giants look like a different team. Washington has Jayden Daniels back healthy and added multiple players to its defensive front. Dallas can sweep both the Giants and the Commanders, but there’s a high likelihood the Cowboys drop one or two of those four games. And while a split with Philadelphia is the most likely outcome, a sweep by the Eagles is a realistic scenario.
3. Lack of takeaways doesn’t get better
The Cowboys were not a good team at taking the football away last season. As Dan Rogers first pointed out on X, the Cowboys were 29th in takeaways last year and 24th in 2024 under Mike Zimmer.
Christian Parker’s arrival is exciting, and I expect him to limit the amount of big plays given up. But I’m not sure the Cowboys will go back to their days of leading the NFL in takeaways.
Dallas doesn’t have an elite pass rusher like it did with Micah Parsons, and Bland isn’t a shutdown corner right now. Takeaways raise the ceiling for any defense, and I’m not sure the Cowboys have the personnel to produce them.