A skeptical view at the Dallas Cowboys’ trade up rumors that have recently picked up ahead of NFL Draft
The Dallas Cowboys haven’t traded up in the first round of the draft since 2012. Are recent rumors a sign that’s about to change? Here are three reasons why it won’t.
If you look at the biggest mock drafts out there one week away from the 2026 NFL Draft, you’ll see the Dallas Cowboys are expected to move up in Round 1. The likeliest spot? The Cleveland Browns’ No. 6 overall pick.
And while I believe it’s a likely scenario all things considered (and one they should pursue), we need to take a skeptical view at things. Why? Because Dallas hasn’t traded up in the first round of the draft since 2012.
So below are three reasons to be not buy into the recent frenzy of rumors, starting with the very same thing that kept Dallas from landing a linebacker in free agency: fear of overpaying.
1. Browns’ asking price could be too high
This is by far the biggest reason to be skeptical about a deal happening. A lot of people assume a swap of picks 12 and 20 for picks 6 and 39 would work. And the logic checks out. Per the Rich Hill trade chart, the Browns would win this trade by a very small margin.
But context matters in every deal. This is a Top 6 pick in a top-heavy draft class. I would expect Cleveland to ask for a premium on the trade. Whether that’s the Cowboys’ fourth-round pick this year or a third rounder next year, the Dallas front office is going to have to be comfortable overpaying.
The question is do the Browns want too much?
2. Two first-round pick may be looked at as safer
Though someone like Ohio State LB Sonny Styles is considered a blue-chip prospect, he’s not a can’t-miss-prospect, is he? The Cowboys have talked a big game about turning the Micah Parsons trade into multiple impact players.
Missing on their first-round pick would be a terrible way to age the already controversial trade. Perhaps the Cowboys prefer two swings in the Top 20 than a home run attempt in the Top 10. They need to get it right.
And while it seems like the right time to gamble, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys play it safe instead.
3. Positional value could be a concern
The players who make the most sense as trade up candidates for the Cowboys share a common problem: They play positions that are generally considered less valuable than others.
I’m talking about Caleb Downs, who plays safety, and Sonny Styles, who plays off-ball linebacker. The Cowboys haven’t drafted a first-round safety since Roy Williams in 2002. And in 2021, the Cowboys traded back before adding Parsons—who was then considered an off-ball prospect.
Trading up to address those two positions would be very unlike Dallas. But then again, this is a draft class where positional value is expected to be irrelevant.