The math foreshadows Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott will take a step back in 2026, but I wouldn’t bet on it
The Dallas Cowboys quarterback was named one of the luckiest in the NFL. And that implies his numbers are likely to take a hit in 2026. But I’m not betting on it.
If the Dallas Cowboys are going to sneak into the playoffs this year, it’s clear it will have to be because of their offense. Even though the defense was improved in free agency and the draft, the offense is the side of the ball that was elite last year.
With the entire starting lineup returning for another go, the Dak Prescott-led unit is the Cowboys’ true hope. And yet, the math warns of a Prescott regression.
Prescott named top ‘regression’ candidate
In a study made by Pro Football Focus’ Mark Chichester, Prescott was named the sixth quarterback most likely to “regress” in 2026. Specifically, Chichester ranked quarterbacks likelier to throw more interceptions than they did last season.
To do this, he looked into turnover-worthy throws (which are picked off nearly 50% of the time) and determined how “lucky” each NFL quarterback was last year. The study also factored in interceptions on non-turnover-worthy throws (like a dropped pass resulting in a pick).
“Prescott’s 17 turnover-worthy throws would normally translate to just over eight interceptions at league-average conversion rates, but only six were intercepted while defenders dropped seven additional would-be picks,” writes Chichester. “Prescott also threw four interceptions on non-turnover-worthy plays, almost exactly in line with expectation for his volume. Nearly all of his positive variance came from genuinely risky throws failing to turn into turnovers.”
In other words, Prescott got lucky in 2025 and statistics suggest if his turnover-worthy-throw rate remains the same, he should turn the ball over more often this season.
Why I’m betting against the numbers
Regression statistics are the real deal, and I’m not doubting the numbers. Instead, this is more about the Cowboys offense evolving.
It makes sense for Dak’s interceptions to tick up slightly. But this will also be Prescott’s second year working with the Brian Schottenheimer offense. And it will be his second season with George Pickens at wide receiver.
Prescott is the kind of NFL quarterback who obsesses over all the details of an offense so I expect growing familiarity with Schottenheimer’s scheme to play a major role.
Factor in the rise of Ryan Flournoy as WR3 and the potential for improved pass protection from left tackle Tyler Guyton (one of the biggest question marks ahead of the season), and Prescott should be operating in a better situation.
I realize this is a little bit of a glass-half-full view at things, but can you blame me?
The last two full seasons from Prescott have been nothing short of elite. In 2023, he was the MVP runner up behind Lamar Jackson. And with a good defense, he likely would have been in the conversation last year as well.
Maybe Prescott’s interception total (10) goes up this season. But I’m not betting on it. And if it does, I’d wager it’s outweighed by improvement in other areas such as big-time throws.