I know that nobody wants to hear this. I know some Detroit Lions fans are going to be allergic to hearing this. But you have to hear this. You have to take it in.

A good deal of Lions fans and local radio stations, egging those fans on, have been very upset with the way the Lions have been building their roster during free agency. The complaint from some is that the Lions haven’t been aggressive enough. Some say they don’t spend enough money, and others say that they’re cowards for not selling out for the most expensive players at the positions of need.

Where does this idea come from? There are some teams that will go all in, and at times it works. The Rams are a really good example of that. But there are also teams like the Raiders, who spent the most this year and were in the top five of spending in the last four years combined, but they just can’t make it work.

Well, there are some reasons for this, and ESPN’s Bill Barnwell did a really good job of figuring them out. He looked at the top 500 free agents from 2013 to 2025 to find out how these signings have all turned out. Here are some interesting notes on the Lions front.

The success rates are much higher with younger players, and the free agents are lower on the top 50 board

We’ll start with the age portion of things. Barnwell found that free agents between the ages of 24-27 had a success rate of 44.2%. The Lions have signed 11 players this off-season and aside from Teddy Bridgewater, they all fit in this category. That’s not to say they’re guaranteed to work out, but it is to say that they have a better chance of doing it. This is a big reason why the Lions wanted to get younger this offseason.

As for the lower on the board, we know the Lions didn’t sign any of the top guys. Barnwell did find that players who were in the 26-50 range generally had a higher success rate than the players in the top 25. The Lions signed one player on ESPN’s top 50, and that was Cade Mays. He came in at 39.

Spending the big money just doesn’t work out because free agents don’t really seem to work out.

As you can see, the hope for free agents to really go out and become something special is the hope of a fool. What you’re really hoping for is average or exceeding expectations. Those are some decent success rates. You’re probably not getting a Pro Bowler. You’re almost definitely not getting a superstar.

For the fans of edge rushers, you can really see how much things didn’t work out with last year’s crop of free agents in that department.

layer	Team signed with	Contract	2025 Output
Dayo Odeyingbo	Bears	3 years, $48 million	10 pressures and 1 sack
Harold Landry	Patriots	3 years, $43.5 million	50 pressures and 8.5 sacks
Joey Bosa	Bills	1 year, $12.6 million	51 pressures and 5 sacks
DeMarcus Lawrence	Seahawks	3 years, $32.5 million	52 pressures and 6 sacks
Malcom Koonce	Raiders	1 year, $11 million	35 pressures and 4.5 sacks
Pat Jones	Panthers	2 years, $15 million	10 pressures and 1 sack
Michael Hoecht	Bills	3 years, $21 million	8 pressures and 2 sacks
Chauncey Golston	Giants	3 years, $18 million	5 pressures and 1 sack

I know you hate it, but the Lions were right to skip out on all these guys. None of them really moves the needle. Maybe Harold Landry? But $43.5 Million for a 30-year-old edge is not the best move to make for a team that both wants to get younger and has some major extensions to work out with elite players very soon.

So for the Lions, this study really shows that they’re going about things the right way. Again, I know that doesn’t fit the narrative. But the numbers show it’s the right way to go in theory. Of course, these players that they did sign have to pan out, and by all means, they all seem to fit what Detroit does. We’ll see.

As for the edge, the draft is where it’s at. It fits the Lions’ wanting to get younger, and it’s the cheaper way to find the right guy. You just have to nail it.