At one point this season it looked clear as day. Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson was going to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. There was no doubt about it. He racked up so many pressures that he continued to lead the league for weeks after his Week 6 injury. 

Unfortunately, that broken leg ruined what could have been a generational season and what could have made Hutchinson the highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL. Something that could possibly still happen by the way. 

The Lions are expected to either use the fifth-year option or work up an extension with Hutchinson this offseason. I worked with cap expert Joshua Queipo to work up a projection of what that extension could look like and here is what we came up with. 

A four-year deal worth $110 million with $82.5 million guaranteed and 60.5 fully guaranteed. $27.5 million average per year. 

That is a lot of lettuce no doubt, but it's also not as much as he could get. This projection puts him at fifth in average per year, sixth in total value, and fifth in fully guaranteed money. 

That is a very solid offer and if I were Aidan Hutchinson, I would politely pass on it and take the fifth-year option. Here's why:

The injury is going to play a role. We all want to act like it's not, but it is. Even though we know that the Lions have been trendsetters in the sense that they will make sure their players are paid over the market, he's still not likely to get what he should get. Fifth in APY is good, but it could and should be first. But the Lions have to take care of themselves in case things go awry. 

Even if the Lions were to take care of him right now and make him the highest-paid edge rusher in the NFL and offer him $35 million a year which would pass Nick Bosa's current leading amount of $34 million a year, Hutchinson would likely only be the highest paid edge for a couple months max. Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons would then probably jump that amount to make more. 

While the Lions would get a deal out of that, Hutchinson would leave a significant amount on the table. That's why it would be in his best interest to play out the fifth-year option which is projected to pay him a fully guaranteed $22,612,000. 

If he comes back and balls out in the way that he did to start the 2024 season and wins that Defensive Player of the Year award, we're talking about the market setting with him. 

Now we're after Parsons and Garrett got their deals which should be in the high 30 million per year area. 

Hutchinson could get $40 plus million a year and could be the highest-paid non-quarterback in the league. We're talking set for life type money and he's earned it. It would also make sure the Lions could lock him down for the rest of his career more than likely. 

The choice is either a really good amount of money with the potential that the Lions may take care of you and make you the highest-paid player for a little bit or set the market and be the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. If I'm Hutchinson I'm betting on myself and taking the latter.

If we know Hutchinson as well as we do, he's not going to stop being one of the best edge rushers in the NFL when he comes back. He's way more likely looking to come back even better. It's probably also safe to say that he would stay in Detroit no matter what. It's the perfect situation for him. It's literally home.