We built a real QB grading model — and Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff’s result will spark debate

Our model to figure out who the elite players are

• We built a weighted impact score so this isn’t a vibes exercise
  The first thing we did was remove as much subjectivity as possible. “Impact” gets thrown around way too loosely, so we forced it into a structure. Every player gets an impact score out of 100, and it’s made up of four specific buckets: high-leverage performance (30%), on/off team effect (25%), opponent adjustments (25%), and drive-level impact (20%). Those weights matter. They reflect what actually changes games, not what looks good on a highlight. So right away, we’re not asking “does this guy feel elite?”—we’re asking “does he consistently check these boxes that translate to winning?”
• We isolate the moments that actually matter—and demand consistency there
  Anyone can rack up stats between the 20s in the second quarter. That’s not what we care about. We pull out high-leverage situations—third and fourth down, red zone, late-game, one-score moments—and grade players only within those windows. But here’s the key: it’s not about one or two big plays. We’re looking at success rate and efficiency over time. If you’re truly elite, you don’t just pop once—you repeatedly deliver when the game tightens up. Consistency in those moments is what separates a great player from a guy who just has big highlights.
• We measure how much a player actually moves the needle—and whether that holds up week to week
  The on/off splits are huge for this. We’re looking at how the team performs with you on the field versus without you—EPA per play, success rate, explosive plays, all of it. But again, we’re not chasing one-game swings. This is about sustained impact. If a defense falls apart every time you’re off the field across a full season, that’s real. If it only happens once or twice, that’s noise. Elite players create a reliable difference. You can count on the drop-off being there. That consistency is what earns the score.
• We quantify attention, because drawing it consistently is a skill in itself
  This is where a lot of players get exposed. We track how opponents treat you—double-team rates, avoided targets, extra bodies in the box, protection shifts. But the key isn’t “did it happen once?” It’s “does it happen every week?” If teams are game-planning around you over and over again, that’s impact you can measure. And if that attention is inconsistent, your grade reflects that too. Elite players don’t occasionally scare defenses—they force adjustments as a baseline expectation.
• We zoom out to the drive level, because that’s where consistency really shows up
  At the end of the day, football is about sustaining drives or ending them. So we track how often a player contributes to extending drives (first downs, explosives) or killing them (sacks, breakups, turnovers). And just like everything else, this is about repeatability. Can you consistently keep your offense on the field? Can you consistently get your defense off it? The guys who grade out highest here aren’t just making splash plays—they’re influencing the flow of the game over and over again.
• Total score = 100 points
• Production — 25%
  What they actually put on the field (stats adjusted for position and efficiency, not volume)
• Efficiency — 20%
  How clean and effective their production is per snap (EPA, success rate, explosive efficiency)
• Consistency — 20% ⭐
  Week-to-week reliability across the season(s) (no hot streak inflation, no disappearing acts)
• Impact on winning / high-leverage — 15%
  Performance in clutch situations (3rd down, red zone, late game, drive-changing plays)
• Film gravity / opponent adjustment — 10%
  How much attention they demand (double teams, scheme changes, avoidance, protection shifts)
• Durability / availability — 10%
  Ability to stay on the field and sustain performance over time
• This is measured over a two year time period