Raiders have a legit shot at making a big first-round draft trade after taking Fernando Mendoza No. 1 overall
The Las Vegas Raiders have ten picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. They are, as GM John Spytek said, in the business of having good football players. So, while they need all of these picks to attempt to fill roster needs, they also need as many good football players as they can get. In the […]
The Las Vegas Raiders have ten picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. They are, as GM John Spytek said, in the business of having good football players. So, while they need all of these picks to attempt to fill roster needs, they also need as many good football players as they can get.
In the last draft, Spytek moved back twice in the second round. This time, we could see him moving up. Being in the business of getting good football players means picking higher in the draft. Could we see the Raiders trade back into the back end of the first round of the draft? There’s certainly a possibility, maybe a minor possibility, but it’s there. The only way I see that happening is if there’s a run on a position early in the draft, and a guy they desperately want is at risk of getting drafted before pick No. 36.
I would say defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, safeties Dillon Thieneman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, and wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. are the only guys I could see them trading back up for that are realistic. As we said, they do have a ton of needs, so keeping the ten picks would also benefit them. It would take a lot for them to convince themselves to trade up.
But it’s certainly possible.
Just how far up can the Raiders move into the first round of the draft?
It’s not going to be cheap to move up—it never is. However, there is a spectrum or range, I should say, in which they should be paying close attention to moving up. It starts at pick No. 24, currently held by the Browns. Cleveland also has pick No. 6, and there have already been rumors that they are interested in trading back. They currently have 9 picks and could be looking to add more. Of course, they could always be content with nine draft picks.
The ending range on that is the Seattle Seahawks at No. 32. And Seattle definitely wants to move back.
“Definitely. It’s the pick that everybody wants,” Seattle GM John Schneider said when asked about the alluring qualities of the 32nd pick. “A, you’re blessed enough to win the Super Bowl, right? The fifth-year option right there. It’s no secret with us, guys. We have four picks, so we’ll be looking to move back. People are usually understanding that I think we tend to trend backwards, trade back.”
In order for the Raiders to trade up to pick No. 24 with the Browns, or even to pick No. 32, they have to give up pick No. 36 in every instance for the trade value to be anywhere near equal. So, in this instance, trading up for 24 means sending 36, 117, and 175. Based on the Rich Hill trade chart, the Raiders would be getting the better end of the deal, with their picks equalling 199 points, and the Browns equalling 234.
But the Browns still likely do this because of how many picks they are getting back, even though they moved back 12 spots. Largely, it’s because they’d have an extra fourth-round pick. If the Raiders made that same offer to the Seahawks, they would be the ones losing out on the value, as Seattle’s pick is worth 184 total points.
There’s also a historical example that closely matches this. The Jets and Titans pulled off a similar trade back in 2022 that looked like this:
Titans move back from 26 to 35 and receive: Nos. 35, 69 (3rd), and 163 (5th)
Jets move up from 35 to 26 and receive: Nos. 26 and 101 (3rd)
Those teams swapped third-rounders, and the Titans gained a fifth. Whereas in this scenario, Cleveland is given both a fourth and a fifth without having to give anything else other than 24.
Final verdict on potential trade back into the first round
There are so many needs on this roster. If Vegas truly feels like they can get better right away, then why not trade back into the first round? If you’re getting a guy like Thieneman, who is considered the second-best safety in this class after Caleb Downs, why not? Vegas has three safeties on its roster. All of them have one year left on their deal, and none of whom can cover.
Getting Fernando Mendoza’s best receiver from this last season in Cooper Jr., may be a reason the Raiders are willing to trade up. Getting an elite run-stopper with great pass-rush potential in McDonald would be a reason they may want to move up.
Make the trade if it means getting better and getting potential stars. But the Raiders likely won’t do that. It’s hard to predict if a team will make a trade in the draft, so telling you whether they will or won’t is impossible. All I can do is lay out the facts of how they can make it happen, and you can formulate whether they should or not.
