The Detroit Lions open against a New Orleans Saints team that went 6-11 last year, and on paper this looks like a winnable game. But it’s not that simple. The Saints have a defense that could make life difficult for the Lions, while Detroit has a matchup up front they can exploit all afternoon. So where can the Lions win this game? What can get them beat? And what’s the one thing that decides it?

Where the Lions can beat the Saints

It starts with the Saints offensive line. New Orleans allowed 49 sacks last year, so you would think the Lions defensive line should be able to eat here. Aidan Hutchinson is going to get a ton of attention, but he’s not alone anymore. Detroit is carrying 11 defensive linemen, and there are some guys who can also produce.

DJ Wonnum stands out. Look at what he did in Minnesota with Danielle Hunter. He took advantage of those one-on-one opportunities, took advantage of every piece of attention Hunter was getting, and was able to get 8-sack seasons out of it. Then there’s Derrick Moore, who could come in and play on third-and-medium and third-and-long passing situations. That’s where Moore can eat. A defensive lineman the creator flagged showed some ability to get to the quarterback this offseason. On the interior, another interior lineman adds another weapon, and you’ve got some of these other big ends who can kick inside. There’s a lot more pass rush on this team than there was last year.

If I were the Lions’ defensive coordinator, I would move Hutchinson around. Don’t just have him attacking one tackle. Attack both the left and the right tackle. Go all over the place. Work inside. Hutchinson can do just about anything, so have him do just about anything.

The one thing Detroit needs to make sure of is containing the Saints’ quarterback. He can run — not at the level of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, not going to do crazy things, but he’s in that Geno Smith or Aaron Rodgers range. Those guys can get out and move, but not to the point where you’re worried about a 50-yard touchdown. They can extend the play enough to get to the sticks, though, and that’s what you do not want. The Lions need to be aggressive but disciplined up front to make sure he can’t extend plays with his feet.

What can get the Lions beat

The Saints defense is actually pretty good, and it could attack the Lions where it hurts. Last year New Orleans was 4th against the pass and 3rd on 3rd downs. What was the big thing the Lions had issues with last year? Converting on 3rd down.

The Saints are really good at disguising coverages and tricking quarterbacks into doing things. This is where the Lions cannot be impatient. They cannot try to force the big play. I know they want to be explosive. I know that’s what they want more than anything. But if they can’t get it done, they have to be willing to move away from it. If Detroit can’t get that big pass to Jamo down the field, live to fight another day. Save that for Week 2 against the Bills.

What the Lions need to do is take the yards they can get. Shoot it over to Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just perennially open on the shorter side of the pass. He can get you a 10-yard gain and your first down. Take advantage of Sam LaPorta, who has been a safety blanket for Jared Goff. Take advantage of the shorter passes Jahmyr Gibbs can take in. If you can’t get explosive, get comfortable. Play the game you know you can win. And what we know the Lions can win at is playing comfortable ball, smart ball, with the short passes.

Turnovers are the other thing. That’s how teams like the Saints win. They use that really good defense to force turnovers and give their offense more opportunities. Even though New Orleans’ offense is going to struggle, if the Saints get extra chances, they could score off them. Do not turn this ball over.

What decides this game

Early-down efficiency. That’s it right there. The Lions are going to deploy Gibbs right away. If he’s able to get first downs and keep the sticks moving, Detroit wins this game. It’s as simple as that. You cannot afford to get into a situation with this Saints defense where you are playing the third-and-long game.

The run game has to work here. Ideally, you’re not getting into third-down situations at all. But third downs are going to happen. You cannot afford to live in third and long, because that is playing into New Orleans’ defensive strength all day.

On top of that, the Lions need to avoid self-inflicted wounds. No defensive pass interference spot fouls, no defensive holding, no offensive holding. Not to keep putting dirt on Terrion Arnold’s grave, but he was a big defensive holding and defensive pass interference guy, and he’s not here anymore. That should theoretically make a big difference. On offense, Blake Miller is a rookie, and rookies get holding calls at this level. The point is: stay on schedule. No negative runs. Gibbs, don’t get into situations where you’re taking a tackle for loss trying to extend a play.

Make sure Hutchinson and the pass rush can eat, and the Lions will win this game.

The prediction

Lions 31, Saints 20. This offense is going to get done what it wants to get done. The Saints are still going to score, but I don’t believe they’re putting up a whole lot of touchdowns. My big predictions: Hutchinson has at least 2 sacks, Amon-Ra St. Brown gets over 100 yards and a touchdown, and Gibbs goes over 100 yards with a trip to the end zone as well. We’ll see you guys next week in the Prediction Lab when the Lions take on the Bills.