ESPN says it’s a make-or-break year for Minnesota Vikings star, but the situation isn’t as cut and dry as it’s made out to be

The Minnesota Vikings are looking to rebound from a tough 2025 season and that includes T.J. Hockenson, who simply hasn’t been as productive since he tore his ACL back in 2023.

Evan Winter — NFL Managing Editor

Jun 25, 2026 12:46 PM EDT

The Minnesota Vikings have arguably the NFL’s best trio of wide receivers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jauan Jennings.

Those three are enough to strike fear into any opposing secondary. That’s not the end of the Vikings’ pass-catching threats, either, as T.J. Hockenson remains the team’s top tight end heading into the 2026 season.

For Hockenson, the last couple of years have been on the quieter side when it comes to his production, but he still has plenty of game left to where he can make a big impact. Especially in this offense.

Regardless, the quiet 2024 and 2025 campaigns have led ESPN’s Bill Barnwell to believe the 2026 season is a make-or-break year for Hockenson:

There’s more to the Hockenson-Vikings situation than meets the eye

It’s implied Hockenson’s 2023 injury is what’s held him back, so I just wanted to point out that’s not really the case. There have been many outside factors working against Hockenson that were out of his control and they affected his overall production.

For starters, it’s nearly impossible to discern how much the injury and just natural decline due to Hockenson simply getting older have played a role in the last couple of years.

But when it comes to the football aspect, there’s plenty of evidence this isn’t just a Hockenson issue. The two-time Pro Bowler ran 333 and 418 routes over the last two seasons, which represent the second- and fourth-lowest totals of his seven-year career, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also been targeted the fewest amount of times in each season (62 and 66) since his rookie year (56).

I’m no math wizard, but a decline in opportunity naturally leads to lesser production, correct?

On top of that, the Vikings offensive line dealt with numerous key injuries in 2025, which forced Hockenson to block at his highest rate since 2022. Hockenson was left in to chip (and when he chips he means business) and that delayed his route-running for obvious reasons. That extra 1-1/2 second can easily make the difference between seeing the ball come your way or go in a different direction.

And, of course, there were last year’s issues at quarterback. We’ve seen time and time again that even the elite receivers can be held back if they don’t have the right guy throwing them the ball. It’s completely objective to sit here and say the Vikings passing attack just wasn’t what it needed to be in 2025 and a lot of that was because of QB play.

The counter to that, of course, is Hockenson’s 455 receiving yards in 2024, which were his second-lowest since his rookie year, at the time. Sam Darnold had a great year that year, yet he and Hockenson didn’t produce like the other weapons.

Well, the counter to that counter would be the fact it was the year after Hockenson’s late-season knee injury. I mean, the guy missed the first seven games because he was on the PUP list and even then he managed to average about four catches and 45 receiving yards per game. He also averaged 1.56 yards per route, which is the fourth-highest mark of his career.

So, it’s not as clear-cut an issue, even though it’s been implied as such. Will Hockenson get back to the level of production where he recorded eight games of 70+ receiving yards and caught eight touchdowns in his first 26 games (playoffs included) as a Viking?

Probably not.

But the Vikings don’t need him to be that guy. If he can just have a solid year where he makes some big plays here and there, it’s easy to see why his future remains up north with the purple and gold.