Despite being 10-2, many are questioning the Vikings' record because of one-score games and it's a flawed argument
Going into the 2024 season, the Minnesota Vikings were projected to win as few as 6.5 wins by the sportsbooks. Needless to say, they've exceeded expectations on that end. This season, the Vikings are 10-2 with some very impressive wins, especially a 34-7 win over a healthy Houston Texans team back in week three. They […]
Going into the 2024 season, the Minnesota Vikings were projected to win as few as 6.5 wins by the sportsbooks. Needless to say, they've exceeded expectations on that end.
This season, the Vikings are 10-2 with some very impressive wins, especially a 34-7 win over a healthy Houston Texans team back in week three. They have also done a great job against other talented teams on both sides of the ball.
One of the interesting elements with the Vikings' record this season that has brought out the worst opinions is once again their record in one-score games.
So far this season, the Vikings have played in eight one-score games. In those games, they are 7-1 with a 3-1 record in games that were decided by 10+ points. The one intriguing thing here is the Vikings have actually played in less one-score games than the average team.
On average, teams would have played in 9.5 one-score games this season. The entire goal of the National Football League is to create 32 0.500 franchises where you win on the margins with scouting, coaching and having that equate on the field.
The element of one-score games is one of the main reasons why so many across the league haven't quite bought into the Vikings. Well, that and Sam Darnold.
Let's parse out why the Vikings are different than what they were in 2022. Purple Insider's Matthew Coller also wrote about one-score games and had a great rationale on it that echoes my sentiments.
Here’s the thing about 2022: It wasn’t that the Vikings had one-score wins, it was how the one-score wins happened and the fact that they got destroyed in their losses. They were allowing 400 yards to Andy Dalton, Mike White, Justin Fields and Daniel Jones (twice). They were blessed with a tanking division and the easiest opposing QB schedule known to man and barely survived on weird stuff going in their favor like doinked field goals and Josh Allen’s QB sneak fumble.
The Vikings woke up on Monday ranking top 10 in points for and points against. The allow the lowest percentage of drives to turn into scores in the NFL and they are top 10 in net yards per pass attempt and net yards per pass attempt allowed. That’s a little different than ranking 13th and 30th in NY/A or 28th in points allowed.
This season, the one-score games haven't happened in the same way that other Vikings' seasons have. Despite being credited for one-score games against the San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers, both teams got a score in the last two minutes to bring the score within eight points. You can group the game against the Chicago Bears within that group, as it would have been a three-point game even if the Vikings had recovered the onside kick.
Winning one-score games is about coaching and the players and they have an elite head coach in those situations. Kevin O'Connell has talked multiple times about being situational masters and he's lived up to that with a 24-9 record in one-score games in his career, a staggering 72.7% win percentage.
The big thing with one-score games is they aren't all created equal. The Vikings this season haven't had to rely on crazy circumstances, like an absurd catch and Josh Allen fumble in that famous Buffalo Bills game or a 33-point comeback against the Indianapolis Colts. The Vikings are often controlling the game but it ends up being close. One of the easiest things to look at to find that out is win probability. The game against the Green Bay Packers.
Despite the game feeling out of control late, the win probability didn't dip under 75% after the first quarter.
The moral of the story is this: the context of each individual game matters significantly more than the game being decided by one score.
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