NFL history points to a make-or-break year for Sam LaPorta, and a year 4 fork in the road explains why
Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta is entering the season NFL history says defines careers. Year 4 has become the fork in the road for elite tight ends, and the numbers point to a make-or-break campaign ahead.
The Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta belongs to a fraternity that includes roughly 10 members in the entire history of the NFL. These are the tight ends who came out and posted history-making rookie seasons. It doesn’t happen often, and people tend to assume that because a guy like LaPorta exploded as a rookie, that’s simply who he’ll always be. But NFL history tells a very different story.
The reality is that most tight ends take time to adjust to the league. Blocking better defensive linemen, running routes against better linebackers and safeties, all of it requires an adjustment period. Then there are the rare exceptions. LaPorta came out in his rookie year and put up 86 receptions for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. That kind of production from a rookie tight end is almost unheard of.
The fraternity
You can count the guys who have done it on your hands. Mike Ditka still owns one of the greatest rookie tight end seasons ever with 56 receptions, 1,076 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Kyle Pitts came close with 68 receptions, 1,026 yards, and a touchdown. Jeremy Shockey got over 800 yards. Keith Jackson got over 800 yards. Charle Young got over 800 yards. John Mackey posted 35 receptions, 726 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Evan Engram had 722 yards and 6 touchdowns. Cam Cleeland put up 684 yards and 6 touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid most recently had 73 receptions, 673 yards, and 2 touchdowns. And then there’s Brock Bowers, who posted the greatest rookie tight end season of all time with 112 receptions, 1,194 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Here’s the thing: every single one of those guys struggled in year 2. Every one of them went downward. I remember trying to explain this to Lions fans before the 2024 season. NFL history is NFL history. And while LaPorta was fine in his second year, he still had a step back, finishing with 60 receptions, 726 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Even Bowers followed the same pattern, dropping to 64 receptions, 680 yards, and 7 touchdowns in his second season. That’s just what happens.
The year 4 fork in the road
What I’ve noticed studying these guys is that a pattern emerges heading into year 4. The first three seasons tend to be up and down. Maybe there are some injuries mixed in. LaPorta dealt with his back injury in 2025, playing only nine games and finishing with 40 receptions, 489 yards, and 3 touchdowns. But year 4 is where the fork in the road appears.
In year 4, these guys either prove they’re exactly what everyone thought they’d be, or they become the player their fans hoped they’d never become. Ditka went right: 75 receptions, 897 yards, 5 touchdowns in year 4. Shockey went right: 65 receptions, 897 yards, 7 touchdowns. But Cam Cleeland went left: 16 receptions, 112 yards, a single touchdown. Charle Young went left: 30 receptions, 374 yards, zero touchdowns.
What it means for the Lions
So now you have to ask: which way is LaPorta going? And the stakes go beyond the field. This is the last year of his rookie contract with Detroit, and there’s a real chance he becomes the highest-paid tight end in NFL history. Whether the Lions extend him before the season, during it, or after it remains an open question.
I’m of the opinion that LaPorta goes the right way down the fork. You could argue the back injury should concern you, and history from eras when injuries meant the death of a career would support that worry. But here’s the counterpoint: of all the injured Lions heading into this offseason, LaPorta was the one actually participating at OTAs and mandatory minicamp. Everything points to him being ready for day one of training camp at the end of July.
His production in year 2 was still solid despite the step back. His pace in year 3 before the injury suggested he could have topped 800 yards again. Jared Goff treats him like a safety blanket because LaPorta is sure-handed and dangerous after the catch. A lot of things point to the idea that LaPorta bounces right back and has a big 2026 season. We’ll see how it plays out.
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