ESPN NFL analyst Ben Solak published his bold predictions article, and buried inside was an Offensive Rookie of the Year pick that would make history not seen since 2003, well before Tennessee Titans rookie Carnell Tate was born.

The prediction was not Tate, the fourth overall pick, who has already emerged as Cam Ward’s go-to target in OTAs and minicamp. 

Solak went with Washington Commanders wide receiver Antonio Williams, the 71st overall pick out of Clemson.

Credit where credit is due. If you’re writing a bold predictions column, you should go big. Solak did that. 

Williams would be the lowest-drafted wide receiver Offensive Rookie of the Year winner since Anquan Boldin went 54th overall to the Arizona Cardinals in 2003. For context, 18 of the last 21 winners of the award from 2000 to 2025 were first-round picks. The other three: running backs Eddie Lacy and Alvin Kamara, plus quarterback Dak Prescott.

Solak’s reasoning for Antonio Williams as OROY

“It’ll take a down year for a late-drafted WR to win this award, but this looks like a down year,” Solak writes. “Only two quarterbacks were taken in the first two rounds, and one of them (Ty Simpson) has no chance of earning a starting job. Should Fernado Mendoza not surpass Kirk Cousins until midseason or struggle statistically when he starts, the field opens up.”

“The running back class this year was historically weak. RB3 (Kaelon Black) left the board at No. 90 — the latest the third running back has been taken in the common draft era (since 1967). Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are the two first-round running backs, but Price is reportedly facing a timeshare in Seattle, while Love will labor on a bad Cardinals team eyeing the 2027 No. 1 pick.”

The odds landscape tells part of the story

Before getting into why Tate remains the stronger candidate, the current betting market is worth laying out. 

Jeremiah Love, the third overall pick by the Cardinals, sits as the favorite anywhere between +300 and +430. 

Fernando Mendoza of the Raiders comes in between +375 and +430. 

Tate and Saints receiver Jordan Tyson hover around the third and fourth spots, with Tate listed between +550 and +700 and Tyson between +600 and +650.

Williams, if you can even find him listed, lives at +3,000. So yes, this qualifies as bold.

Tate’s opportunity with Titans is unmatched

Here’s where the argument for Tate over Williams gets simple. Offensive Rookie of the Year, in my opinion, is about opportunity when the winner isn’t a quarterback. Tate has it in abundance.

The Titans’ wide receiver room features free agent signing Wandale Robinson, Calvin Ridley on a restructured pay cut, and second-year fourth-round picks Elic Ayomanor and Chim Dike, who could battle each other for most improved returning players. Tate is the clear No. 1 target already.

Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll was the head coach of the Giants a couple of seasons ago when fifth overall pick Malik Nabers received roughly 170 targets. 

Nabers and Robinson combined for over 40% of New York’s total pass targets that season, a lopsided distribution that Tennessee probably won’t replicate. But the template is there. I expect Tate to clear 100 targets, which would lead the team. Robinson should get over 100 as well, given that he received around 140 targets in each of his final two seasons under Daboll in New York. Ayomanor led the Titans with 89 targets a season ago.

The Titans have invested so much in Ward and the future of this franchise. They have to feed Tate. He’s the guy they drafted fourth overall to be Cam Ward’s top weapon, and everything about the early returns from the practice field suggests the connection is already forming.

Williams fit in Washington

Antonio Williams is a good player. He posted 55 catches for 600 yards and four touchdowns in just 10 games last season at Clemson, and that Clemson offense was putrid. The entire team underperformed expectations, and Williams dealt with an early-season injury against LSU on top of it.

“Williams is also a hand-in-glove fit for David Blough’s Detroit-inspired offense,” Solak said. “Williams is an easy glider who makes fearless catches over the middle of the field. He dramatically improved his drop rate in 2025 and has that knack for QB friendliness: smart routes, good adjustments to bad balls, inside/out versatility and YAC ability. He is evidently cut from the Amon-Ra St. Brown cloth, and St. Brown’s reliability helped him break into the Lions’ starting lineup as a fourth-round rookie.”

The problem is the Commanders’ receiver room. 

Terry McLaurin is still there. Rumors persist that ether Brandon Aiyuk or Stefon Diggs could end up in Washington before the season starts. If either happens, Williams might be the third or fourth option in the passing game. Even without Aiyuk, he’s not walking into a No. 1 role the way Tate is in Tennessee.

For Williams to win this award, he’d need well over 1,000 receiving yards, and he’d probably need injuries to open up targets in front of him. That’s a lot of dominoes that have to fall as the ninth receiver drafted in the class.

The field is deep, and Tate still stands above it

You also can’t forget about Makai Lemon in Philadelphia, Omar Cooper Jr. with the Jets, Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion in Cleveland’s receiver room. 

Solak is skipping over a lot of talented players drafted above Williams to land on this prediction.

Love has a real case as the third overall pick in Arizona, though that Cardinals offense lacks a franchise quarterback, but has Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride already eating targets. Mendoza isn’t expected to start for the Raiders over Kirk Cousins to open the season, which limits his runway.

Tate plays on a team ready to take a real step, with a coaching staff built to funnel volume to its top receiver, and a franchise quarterback who needs a go-to weapon. Everything lines up.

No hate on Solak for swinging big. That’s the whole point of a bold predictions column. But I still think picking Antonio Williams over Carnell Tate for Offensive Rookie of the Year is quite the stretch.