I know that a very large percentage of Titans fans want to see Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love be the choice at 4th overall this April. But as I have continued to emphasize, I do not believe that is the Titans’ preference if they were given their way. I have maintained that if Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey or Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese somehow fall to 4, that the Titans would happily scoop either one up.

The problem, of course, is that it is becoming increasingly difficult to see how either one lasts until 4. But the winds of change have been blowing this week, and a clearing seems to have opened up for the Titans to get their way. There’s just one more problem.

The one thing blocking the Titans from getting their way at 4th overall

Let’s first establish the problem before this past week of intel. An assumption for some time has been that the Jets will take an EDGE at 2, and that this was likely to be LB/EDGE hybrid Arvell Reese. This would leave David Bailey on the board for the Cardinals at 3, who can easily justify an EDGE or OT at this spot. My strong suspicion based on the conversations I’ve had was that they’d take Bailey because he is who they’d have graded the highest. Thus, leaving the Titans out of luck on these two.

Here’s what has (seemingly…) changed: Almost everybody in the draft industry believes the Jets will take David Bailey at 2 instead of Reese. Perhaps they like him better, perhaps they want somebody who is certain to play EDGE, or perhaps they like the idea of a guy who they know exactly how to use (Reese will require a creative plan to maximize). Whatever the case, basically every insider in the game has come out in the past seven days and said they believe it will be Bailey at 2. The Ringer’s Todd McShay went as far as to say he believes the first two picks are locked-in in his mind: Mendoza, then Bailey.

This would leave Reese for the Cardinals at 3, and we have a clearer picture today on what Arizona is apparently thinking as well. We know OT and EDGE are the biggest needs on this roster that make sense here, and reports indicate they’d really like a bookend tackle but don’t see one who would be a strong value to take all the way up at 3rd overall. Francis Mauigoa is the lineman most often mocked to them here, but he isn’t a prospect who everybody agrees on. He also notably went to Combine medical re-checks this week for a back issue that he dealt with down the stretch of last season, and I’ve not been given a clear thumbs up from league sources on his medicals. This could absolutely be a part of the equation on Draft night.

Meanwhile, there also appears to be at least some concern in Arizona about taking another “tweener” on defense so high in the draft. The Cardinals took LB/S chess piece Isaiah Simmons 8th overall in the 2020 draft, and he flamed out pretty hard relative to his draft investment. Reese is a different (and I would argue definitively better) prospect, but that hesitation has to exist nonetheless.

So maybe Reese gets to the Titans at 4 overall after all?! The Jets are going a different direction at 2, and the Cardinals are hesitant to take him at 3. Well, not so fast. The problem here is that whether the Cardinals take him at 3 or not, it still feels exceedingly likely that somebody will take him at 3. There’s been a lot of talk about the Cowboys in particular as a candidate to trade-up for a defender. They could come from 12 to 3 to take Reese. Any number of other teams feeling bold could bid on this as well, and the Cardinals have good reason to want to get out of there. If somebody trades up in this draft scenario, I feel good about it being for Reese and Reese alone. Could the Titans trade up a single spot? Perhaps! But I doubt Mike Borgonzi wants to pay strong on a single spot when he needs more picks, not less.

If the Cardinals are stuck there, I still don’t see them valuing somebody else over Reese even with their recent history. I think they’ll take him despite wanting out. And so the Titans are still stymied.