Commanders’ game-by-game predictions after the 2026 schedule release: NFL did Washington zero favors with gantlet of matchups
The Commanders’ 2026 schedule is out and we’ve hit a lot of the major talking points, already. Therefore, game-by-game predictions are up next. Does our crystal ball foretell a return to the postseason or another tough year?
The Washington Commanders’ 2026 schedule has officially arrived and there’s been plenty to chew on since the NFL dropped the news on Thursday night.
So, when is a better time to make way-too-early, game-by-game predictions on how the regular season plays out?
Before we begin, I want to note these predictions include the assumption star players on each team are healthy at kickoff. Knowing the game of football, that’s impossible. However, it’s also impossible to predict if a player misses any one of these contests at a given time.
With that being said, let’s dive in.
Predicting how many games the Commanders win after the 2026 schedule release
Week 1: Commanders at Eagles, 4:25 p.m. EST
From a player perspective, this has to be an exciting opener. Sure, it’s always best to open up at home, but we all know how players love silencing opposing stadiums.
I think the Commanders give the Eagles a run for their money in this one. Dan Quinn and Co. will have plenty of time to game plan against a familiar opponent, which will help new coordinators Daronte Jones and David Blough.
The Commanders come out swinging and start the season with a bang. A last-second field goal from Drew Stevens (you read that right) seals the deal.
Final result: Commanders 26, Eagles 25
Record after Week 1: 1-0
Week 2: Commanders at Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET
The Commanders-Cowboys rivalry has been intriguing ever since Jayden Daniels entered the picture. Daniels has yet to win a game against them as starting quarterback. The only win came via Marcus Mariota in the 2024 season finale.
With that being said, I think the Cowboys continue to give the Commanders problems in their first matchup of the 2025 season. Dak Prescott has a big day against a struggling secondary and the new-look Cowboys defense is able to make enough plays against Daniels and the offense to close out the win.
Final result: Cowboys 24, Commanders 19
Record after Week 2: 1-1
Week 3: Commanders vs. Seahawks, 1 p.m. EST
This is a fascinating matchup on paper and it’ll be even better if both teams are healthy when Week 3 rolls around.
It’ll be a long trip for the Seahawks and they’ll face a 1pm ET kickoff in Washington. But while the logistics aren’t ideal, the Seahawks are the better team and they won’t mitigate that fact.
Commanders-Seahawks history since 2011
The Commanders and Seahawks have faced off a total of eight times in the last 15 years. Below is a quick snapshot of how they’ve fared.
- Record: 3-5
- Points per game: 17.9
- Points allowed per game: 23.0
The Commanders have improved a lot over the offseason, but is it enough to compete with the Super Bowl champs? I think Seattle’s defense will be a bit too much for Jayden Daniels and the offense to overcome.
Final result: Seahawks 24, Commanders 14
Record after Week 3: 1-2
Week 4: Commanders vs. Colts (London), 9:30 a.m. EST
The Colts, like the Commanders, are an unknown heading into 2026. Will we see the team that looked like a Super Bowl contender during the first half of 2025? Or will we see the one that flamed out over the back half?
Obviously, the health of Daniel Jones is a huge factor in all this. I think he’ll be healthy to start by this point in the season, but I think the Commanders are the better team. Even with him in the mix.
This will be a low-scoring, defensive contest and it’s one where Daronte Jones shines brightest in the early season. He’ll out coach Shane Steichen and that’ll be the difference in this one.
Final result: Commanders 17, Colts 10
Record after Week 4: 2-2
Week 5: Commanders vs. Giants, 1 p.m. EST
The Commanders don’t get a bye week after traveling to London, but they do get a home game. That obviously helps, a lot.
This is honestly a really tough five-game stretch to start the season, if you think about it. Technically, three of the Commanders’ first four matchups are road games. Now, they come home to what should be a feisty Giants team that’s now had a month to acclimated to John Harbaugh and Co.
My gut says this will be a close loss to a New York team that surprises people in 2026.
Final result: Giants 21, Commanders 20
Record after Week 5: 2-3
Week 6: Commanders at 49ers (MNF), 8:15 p.m. EST
The 49ers could’ve easily been in the Super Bowl if it weren’t for all the injuries they suffered last year.
This is yet another brutal matchup packed into the early portion of the Commanders’ 2026 schedule. Christian McCaffrey’s big day is what catapults San Francisco to victory, but it’s a good performance, overall, from a defense that looks to be improving as the weeks pass.
Final result: 49ers 19, Commanders 13
Record after Week 6: 2-4
Week 7: BYE
It’s a much-needed bye week after a six-game opening stretch that featured five NFC matchups, including three divisional games. Four of those games are on the road, too, when counting the Colts matchup as a road contest. Because that’s really what it is.
Record at the bye week: 2-4
Week 8: Commanders vs. Eagles (SNF), 8:20 p.m. EST
The Commanders caught the Eagles in Week 1, but the Eagles return the favor in a primetime barnburner.
Hurts and Daniels will trade blows throughout the night, resulting in big games for Terry McLaurin, Saquon Barkley, and other offensive players on both teams.
Throw logic out the window when it comes to divisional games. Unfortunately, the Commanders can’t quite get the sweep on Philly.
Final result: Eagles 34, Commanders 30
Record after Week 8: 2-5
Week 9: Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams, 1 p.m. EST
This is the middle of another really tough stretch for Washington. The good news this time around is the majority of games are at home instead of on the road.
However, this stretch is also where the Commanders’ questionable secondary starts to bite them. The Rams boast one of the NFL’s best passing games, centered around MVP Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua. And, one of the best offenses in general.
The Commanders secondary will be the Achilles heel in a tough loss.
Final result: Rams 27, Commanders 22
Record after Week 9: 2-6
Week 10: Commanders at Giants (TNF), 8:15 p.m. EST
Playing a Thursday night game after tough, back-to-back losses is a spot no one wants to be in. But, the fact this is a rivalry game –and an important one at this point in the season– immediately grabs the Commanders attention.
Washington comes out and shows some major grit and breathes life back into its season thanks to a stingy defense and stout running game. This is where Rachaad White and Jacory Croskey-Merritt have one of their best performances against a questionable Giants run defense with Dexter Lawrence no longer in the middle.
The Commanders defense contains a still-growing Jaxson Dart and gets to enjoy some extra days off before hosting the Bengals on Monday Night Football.
Final result: Commanders 28, Giants 13
Record after Week 10: 3-6
Week 11: Commanders vs. Bengals (MNF), 8:15 p.m. EST
Just like the Rams, this is where the Bengals’ high-powered passing offense takes the reins and hands the Commanders another loss on the season. The Bengals also have an adequate offensive line these days, which obviously helps Joe Burrow and Co.
The Bengals also restocked the defense. It’s another close game, but the Commanders can’t hang on at home.
Final result: Bengals 26, Commanders 23
Record after Week 11: 3-7
Week 12: Commanders at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. EST
Losing five of six games is typically a blow teams can’t recover from, but the Commanders’ 2026 schedule starts to lighten up around Week 12.
There’s no way the Cardinals are a competitive team this year. They have no answer at quarterback, there’s a big question at right tackle, and Marvin Harrison Jr. has yet to become the team’s No. 1 option. The defense has everything to prove, as well.
There are no “gimmes” in the NFL, but this is as close as it gets. Washington cruises to a big win, here.
Final result: Commanders 30, Cardinals 6
Record after Week 12: 4-7
Week 13: Commanders at Titans, 1 p.m. EST
The Titans will be an improved team from last year, but I think the Commanders will still be ahead of them by Week 13.
The Commanders defense leads the way in this game. The front seven comes to town and pins down the Titans offense to the point where it’s an inefficient mess. Daniels and the offense doesn’t have the biggest of days, but they don’t need to as Jones’ unit handles business.
Final result: Commanders 20, Titans 13
Record after Week 13: 5-7
Week 14: Commanders vs. Texans, 1 p.m. EST
The Texans are lowkey Super Bowl contenders heading into 2026 and it’s easy to see why. Jayden Daniels will really have to work his magic in this one, but unfortunately, the Texans defense is just too good on every level.
The size of the disparity in scoring difference will come down to C.J. Stroud and while he connects for some big plays with Nico Collins – the Commanders defense keeps the Texans offense in check, mostly.
But man, that defense is no joke and it’s what ultimately makes the difference.
Final result: Texans 19, Commanders 9
Record after Week 14: 5-8
Week 15: Commanders vs. Falcons, 1 p.m. EST
The Commanders need a win in the worst way and fortunately, the Atlanta Falcons come to town in Week 15.
The difference-maker for the Commanders in this one is Daniels. He’s clearly the better quarterback in this game and he proves it on the field with what should be one of his best games of the year.
Final result: Commanders 31, Falcons 17
Record after Week 15: 6-8
Week 16: Commanders at Vikings, TBD
The Commanders and Vikings have some similarities in that they’re both coming off frustrating seasons, but look to have gotten back on track thanks to deliberate offseasons.
This game will be a barnburner, no doubt. The Commanders will escape with a last-minute play that wraps it up. Look for Terry McLaurin to shine in this one.
Final result: Commanders 37, Vikings 35
Record after Week 16: 7-8
Week 17: Commanders at Jaguars, TBD
I think the Jaguars take a step back from last season, especially with Houston’s impending rise.
The Commanders get their third straight win and fourth win in five games in a heavy-handed defensive battle. The secondary, a unit that’s struggled all year, puts the clamps on Trevor Lawrence and a pretty solid passing attack in the victory.
Final result: Commanders 14, Jaguars 7
Record after Week 17: 8-8
Week 18: Commanders vs. Cowboys, TBD
All of a sudden, the playoffs are a possibility for the Commanders heading into the season finale.
They use their momentum over the last few games to topple Dallas at home, as well. Jayden Daniels gets his first win over the Cowboys as the Commanders’ starting quarterback in front of the fans and Washington ends the season on a high note.
Final result: Commanders 28, Cowboys 24
Commanders’ final 2026 record: 9-8
Final Word
Overall, a 9-8 record that includes splitting all the NFCE games would be a somewhat successful season for the Commanders.
Would it be enough to get them in the playoffs? In this particular case, I don’t think so, because even though Washington finished 3-3 in the NFC East, it also finished 5-7 in NFC games. Typically, that’s not enough to win a playoff tiebreaker.
A late season surge just to miss the playoffs by a game or two would be frustrating, but it’d also provide encouragement that the team is back on track after a disastrous 2025 campaign. Even with losses to big teams.
This fits, as well. The Commanders will get back to being a competitive team in 2026. The playoffs are still a season away, though.