Terry McLaurin's matchup against Lions secondary is the key to unlocking Commanders offense in Motown
There's the overall game of football and then there's the multitude of matchups within the game that provide the final outcome.One such matchup in this week's contest between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions is Terry McLaurin vs. the Lions secondary. The Commanders' star receiver is having the best year of his career and honestly, […]
There's the overall game of football and then there's the multitude of matchups within the game that provide the final outcome.
One such matchup in this week's contest between the Washington Commanders and Detroit Lions is Terry McLaurin vs. the Lions secondary. The Commanders' star receiver is having the best year of his career and honestly, it's a top 5-7 season when looking at all the metrics and the film.
The Lions defense is a very good unit and a big reason why is because defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is one of the smartest, yet most aggressive, DCs in the NFL. The Lions defense is second in blitz rate and it plays more man-to-man coverage than any other team. Brad Holmes, Dan Campbell, and Glenn made moves to make all that possible during the offseason and it's really paid off in 2024.
"Lots of man-to-man [coverage] [and] aggressive," Commanders head coach Quinn told reporters Tuesday when asked what he's noticed about the Lions defense. "And I think the third downs with Aaron and their crew, have been really rock solid and strong. Those would be some things that stand out to me, things that they're excellent at."
For McLaurin, the key factor lies in the man-to-man coverage deployment and it stacks up in his favor: McLaurin is one of the best, if not the best, deep ball receivers in the NFL and a great route runner. If he's manned up, well, that certainly works in the offense's favor.
Per Pro Football Focus, McLaurin's seven touchdowns against man coverage are second-best among the 34 qualifying wideouts with at least 31 targets against man coverage during the regular season. His contested catch rate of 76.5% and QB rating of 129.8 when targeted in man are both fourth-best and his 20 first downs are ninth-best.
McLaurin's physicality and route running help him both separate off the line of scrimmage and beat defenders downfield. The Lions love to press at the line of scrimmage – per Next Gen Stats, they're the only defense with three defensive backs in the top-35 of press coverage snaps played during the regular season.
When pressed, McLaurin finished with the seventh-highest catch rate over expected (19.3%) and only three other receivers out of the 34 that finished with at least 1.5 targets per game against press finished with a better catch rate than McLaurin's 65.4% rate: Jauan Jennings (65.6%), Nico Collins (65.6%), and Alec Pierce (66.7%). He also caught five touchdowns against press, which tied for third-best.
McLaurin is a big play just waiting to happen and he'll get plenty of opportunities against the Lions on Saturday. While the Commanders need to get the ground game going in a big way, they also need to get McLaurin involved early and often. Not just through short-to-intermediate pass plays, either. They need to take some shots in order to help soften the Lions' tough defense.
"He's a guy you see the sideline erupts [when] he gets going. I just have to continue to find ways to get him touches early," Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said regarding McLaurin on Wednesday. ". . . When he's involved early, we've been a lot better offense."
Now, granted, opening things up through McLaurin won't be easy, but the Commanders still need to take their shots. The Lions allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game via the deep ball at 50.7 yards per game, but it's safe to assume a lot of that yardage came from the teams trying to come back from a large scoring deficit, than anything else. This is signaled by the fact the Lions allowed +0.12 EPA/pass attempt, which tied for 22nd of the 32 teams.
The key to taking the deep shots is keeping Jayden Daniels upright and giving the routes enough time to develop. If the Commanders can do that and connect with McLaurin early, it will play a huge role in softening up the Lions defense, which can then trickle down to the run game and the short passing game.
In other words: It'd play a huge role in opening up Kingsbury's playbook.
"They're a good defense. They get their hands on the ball, obviously, with [safety] Kerby [Joseph] and I call him 'BB', with Brian Branch," said Daniels. "Obviously, up front what they could do [is] create pressure [and] play some man coverage, because they trust their guys on the outside. It's going to be a challenge for us."
The best way to make this happen is to dial up some max protect passing schemes in the right moment. If Kingsbury can call the right max protect against the right Lions blitz (which he'll have plenty of opportunities to do so), it should give Daniels and McLaurin the time they need to hit a big play downfield. Nothing is ever easy in this game, but that's certainly a feasible strategy that can be executed without asking too much of the players.
If the Commanders can hit a couple big shots early, well, we saw what it can lead to against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And there's little reason to think the Commanders can't achieve the same final outcome in Motown if they do.
