Big 12 Championship Predictions: A clear top three set to emerge as Arizona State tries to repeat or will chaos reign once again?
Big 12 Media Days festivities have all wrapped up and it's time to look ahead to the 2025 college football season. Will the Arizona State Sun Devils repeat, winning the championship again this fall? Will an underdog emerge and come out of nowhere to win the most competitive conference in the sport?Those were the questions […]
Big 12 Media Days festivities have all wrapped up and it's time to look ahead to the 2025 college football season. Will the Arizona State Sun Devils repeat, winning the championship again this fall? Will an underdog emerge and come out of nowhere to win the most competitive conference in the sport?
Those were the questions our A to Z Sports staff decided to ask ourselves as we ranked our most likely Big 12 teams to win the conference in 2025. Six of our staff members who cover college football came together this last week to see if we could successfully predict who would win the conference and this is where we landed, ranking every team from first to 16th most likely to win the Big 12 this season.
Big 12 Championship Predictions
Projected Finish – School, Average Rank
1 – Kansas State, 1.67
2 – Arizona State, 2.00
3 – Texas Tech, 2.83
4 – Iowa State, 4.83
5 – Baylor, 5.83
6 – Utah, 6.00
7 – TCU, 7.33
8 – BYU, 7.50
9 – Kansas, 8.67
10 – Cincinnati, 10.00
11 – Colorado, 10.50
12 – Oklahoma State, 13.00
13 – Houston, 13.33
14 – UCF, 13.83
15 – Arizona, 14.00
16 – West Virginia, 14.67
Our A to Z Sports college football staff clearly believes that the championship game will come down to Kansas State, Arizona State, and Texas Tech. All three averaged a conference ranking better than 3rd overall in the conference among our writers.
Why such confidence in a conference that is assumed to have such great parity? In short, there seems to be a perceived gap in top returning talents and depth via incoming transfers.
Tier 1 Big 12 Conference Contenders
First off, the Kansas State Wildcats project to lead the way with a ton of returning production and experience from a year ago.
Avery Johnson is entering year three of significant playing time and starting experience at quarterback, offering phenomenal dual threat ability. He tossed 25 touchdowns through the air last season, ran in seven more, and added over 600 rushing yards. Just check out the "mini movie" post below to see why he might just be the best QB in the conference.
The Wildcats return their most explosive running back from last season in Dylan Edwards, their dynamic lead wide receiver in Jayce Brown, and over half of their top 15 defensive contributors from a year ago.
On top of that, they added some new key contributors and starters via the transfer portal like wide receiver Jerand Bradley, running back Gabe Ervin, Sun Belt All Conference cornerback Amarion Fortenberry, and more. Kansas State already went 9-4 last year and looks better in 2025.
Our new Texas Longhorns beat writer, Zach Berry–very familiar with Arizona State's game–was the highest on Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, ranking them first overall. He was bullish on their top key returning talent as well, saying:
"Kenny Dillingham's 'us against the world' mentality resonated last season and Arizona State made a run to the CFP. Now, without Cam Skattebo, what will his encore look like? Well, he's got Sam Leavitt so it should be a standing ovation. Leavitt is one of the top returning quarterbacks in all of college football (2,885 passing yards, 24 TD, 443 rushing yards, five TD) and should elevate his game with an entire offseason in the lab. Jordyn Tyson (1,101 yards, 10 TD) returns and the Sun Devils picked up 1,000-yard rusher, Kanye Udoh, from Army to try and fill the massive hole at running back. Defensively, Keyshaun Elliott (65 tackles) is back to anchor a defense which stopped the run well and the secondary returns experience and swagger after intercepting 16 passes a year ago. If ASU can navigate a tough road schedule, it could mean another CFP berth."
Arizona State's season might come down to how well Sam Leavitt can carry the team without Cam Skattebo, helping the ground game, but he certainly looked up to the task last season.
Especially if he continues to make smart plays, maneuvering within and outside the pocket as well he showed down the stretch last season (as you can see an example of in the post below).
Outside of our two favorites to win the conference in Kansas State and Arizona State, our A to Z Sports staff was also rather bullish on Texas Tech thanks to their absurd run of acquisitions in the transfer portal this offseason.
Quinten Joyner at running back (from USC). David Bailey at edge rusher–a player who posted a pass rush pressure rate over 20% last year (from Stanford). Cole Wisnieweski, the FCS All-American safety. That's just to name a few.
Our Florida Gators beat writer Tyler Forness actually had Texas Tech ranked second in the conference overall, confidently talking them up now that the program finally has real backing to compete:
"The Big 12 is quite an interesting conference to parse out from top to bottom. Last year, nobody had Arizona State beating Iowa State to make the College Football Playoff, but that's how unpredictable the conference is. The Red Raiders are a fascinating team. Their starting quarterback Behren Morton has some really good ability, but hasn't been any kind of consistent during his three years with the program. Where things get really interesting is the top transfer portal class that they brought in with four four-stars and a bevy of players who will play right away. With billionaire Cody Campbell backing the program, things are looking up for Texas Tech."
Tier 2 Big 12 teams who could surprise and make a run at the conference championship
Once our team got past our top three teams there seemed to be a solid next four teams up in Tier 2 with Iowa State, Baylor, Utah, and TCU (BYU would have made it into this group but their QB is gone now).
Iowa State and Baylor both return solid starting quarterbacks in Rocco Becht and Sawyer Robertson, their critical running back talents, and some decent depth on at least one side of the ball. Iowa State will have to replace two 1000-yard wide receivers, which may prove difficult. Baylor is replacing half their starting defense from a year ago. However, both teams look like easy fourth and fifth ranked teams in the conference.
Our A to Z Sports team–and really the national media as a whole–is still a bit split on Utah. We had one writer rank them first, and another as low as 9th. Our Adam Holt (who covers the Saints and LSU) talked through some of the questions and upside for Utah this season, saying:
"I think the top five in the Big 12 is fairly clear as of now. That could change, but Utah resides in that next tier of the teams from 6-8. I think all three of those (TCU, Kansas, Utah) are all incredibly comparable and close in terms of projections. I like the offensive upside of both TCU and Kansas a tad more than the Utes, which gave them an edge. That being said, you won’t catch me being shocked if a Kyle Whittingham team outplays a prediction. Devon Dampier is an upgrade at quarterback for Utah, and he’s going to surprise some folks who haven’t seen him play before. That being said, the defense didn’t find much improvement in the transfer portal this offseason, particularly up front."
Utah should have a dynamic dual threat at quarterback in Devon Dampier if he corrals the turnovers (as many interceptions as passing touchdowns last season for New Mexico). However, there are questions as to whether the defense will be as good and deep this season. Utah could put it all together and win the conference, or fall flat depending on the QB and defensive chemistry.
There was a small gap between the first three teams in this tier and TCU, but that's mainly just because there are so many questions on the team this season. Our national college football writer Ian Valentino put it best:
"The Big 12 is a nightmare to project, and TCU has the profile of a team that should break out a little. They were one of the best offenses in the conference last year and bring QB Josh Hoover and three blockers back. Their recent recruiting classes should also pay off, but it's a lot of projection for young talent and step forward for the defense. The lack of star-level talent on the defensive side of the ball is a red flag, and we've already seen Sonny Dykes have a rollercoaster career. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities TCU has another offense-driven team that suffers some close losses without Jack Bech and Savion Williams carrying the unit."
Long shots to win the Big 12 Conference
Once outside the top seven, even the Big 12 starts to look a little bit non-competitive. Yes, a few of these teams will likely surprise by default, because somebody has to win games, but there should be a tier break here.
BYU was in good shape to repeat their incredible 10-2 regular season prior to losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff due to his "off-field" issues. Now there are huge questions at the most important position with less than two months to go before Week 1.
Kansas could surprise if Jalon Daniels stays healthy, limits the turnovers, and the Jayhawks can get immediate production out of their completely revamped skill position groups with new starters at all three receiver spots and running back.
Outside of BYU and Kansas, every other team has at least 28 to 1 odds to win the conference via FanDuel, and for good reason.
We'll be back with more College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
