The stat that raises the stakes on the Titans Second Round decision between wide receiver and edge rusher in the 2025 NFL Draft
Day 3 might be too late for the Titans to address a massive need
The NFL draft is so much more than an exercise in picking the best football players. A half-dozen evaluation elements are in play, constantly tugging at one another.
There’s of course the question of drafting for need vs. best player available. Some teams have hard testing/measurement thresholds they look for in players at different positions. Some positions will be taken higher than they would be on a pure talent big board because of their premium nature—such as QB, OT, EDGE, WR, and CB—while the “non-premium” positions may sinks below their talent level—such as RB, TE, LB, IOL, IDL, and S.
And then there’s the element of timeline. Certain positions are known for being more likely instant impacts. You can draft a starting RB and have him take off out of the box, for example. Young cornerbacks can start hot too, especially when playing a lot of man. But some positions are know to take time to develop. OT, TE, and LB come to mind as the most often discussed in this way.
But the pair of premium positions the Titans are tasked with addressing in a meaningful way starting on Day 2 have, historically, shaky immediate impacts when taken in the later rounds. This is why the stakes are so high for the Titans after they draft Cam Ward at 1st overall: find an impact rookie receiver and edge rusher with only one more top-100 pick.
The following stats were brought to my attention by my friend Zach Lyons of “Cover 2” on 104.5 The Zone, and they really put into context the risk of trying to “fix” either of these positions on Day 3. Since 2015:
• Only 6.4% of EDGE rushers drafted on Day 3 got 5+ sacks their rookie year
• Only 11% of Day 3 WRs reach 500+ yards their rookie year
There’s a reason why these positions are taken early and often in the draft. They have premium impacts on the game, and they’re harder to address in the later rounds. This is why there’s been so much legitimate discussion about the Titans entertaining trade-back options with the 35th pick. In a perfect world, they could sell 35 for a pair of later Day 2 picks and grab one of each of these players.
Whatever they choose to do, their path to success with these two crucial positions is narrow. It may just not be realistic to meaningfully address both through this draft.