Chiefs CB Jaylen Watson's return is just what Steve Spagnuolo needs to make life miserable for Texans QB C.J. Stroud
The Kansas City Chiefs have officially activated CB Jaylen Watson to the 53-man roster from injured reserve. He was designated to return to practice just before Week 18, and now he's expected to start in the AFC divisional-round game against the Houston Texans on Saturday. He could even be the key to making life miserable for […]
The Kansas City Chiefs have officially activated CB Jaylen Watson to the 53-man roster from injured reserve. He was designated to return to practice just before Week 18, and now he's expected to start in the AFC divisional-round game against the Houston Texans on Saturday. He could even be the key to making life miserable for Texans QB C.J. Stroud.
Everyone knows that Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo absolutely loves to blitz opposing quarterbacks, but what people don't always take into account is what's happening behind the blitz. Take Super Bowl LVIII against the San Francisco 49ers, for instance. The Chiefs blitzed on 27 of their 75 defensive snaps during that game. On 23 of those 27 snaps, Spagnuolo ran man coverage in the secondary.
Now, Spags will be the first to tell you that the man coverage numbers might be a bit deceiving. Often, they run match zone coverage instead of "true" man coverage calls from the sideline. However, what's clear is this defense is at its best when it can blitz and trust those types of aggressive press/man/match coverage principles.
So, what does this have to do with Watson? He's been viewed as a bit of a catalyst for the team's defensive success this season. It's easy to understand when you look at his individual success. Through the first four weeks of the season, Watson didn't allow a single reception in his coverage. He was playing as good of football as he ever had at any point in his three-year NFL career.
That success reflected on the defense as a whole. In Weeks 1 to 8, when Watson was healthy, the Chiefs were tracking to have one of the league's best defenses by EPA (Expected Points Added). Their pass EPA ranked sixth in the league, while their run EPA ranked first. They also had the third-best explosive pass rate in the NFL, stifling the big plays against a really tough early-season slate of quarterbacks.
As soon as Watson suffered his ankle injury, the Chiefs' defensive EPA dipped to the bottom of the league from Weeks 9 to 13, ranking 30th against the pass and 24th against the run. The defense figured some things out beginning in Week 14, and they recovered toward the league average, but the bottom line is that the Chiefs have been much more solid defensively this season when Watson is on the field. His return should also allow Spags to get back to what he likes to do best.
How will Watson's return impact the Chiefs' success against Stroud in the AFC divisional round
Doubling back to our initial point, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz the quarterback, and he's most comfortable doing it when he can play aggressive man/match coverage concepts. Spags has called for a blitz 207 times this season, or on 31.7% of the team's total defensive snaps in the regular season. That ranks the fourth-highest in the NFL this year behind only the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It just so happens that Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has struggled against the blitz this season. During the regular season, Stroud finished 24th among NFL starting quarterbacks in EPA vs. blitz. He was sacked 52 times this season, the second-most among quarterbacks. In the matchup between the Chiefs and Texans in Week 16, Spags blitzed Stroud 19 times, and they were met with varied success. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Stroud was just 5-of-15 for 82 yards, a touchdown, and an interception when he was pressured in Week 16.
The key to thwarting Houston's offense is getting Stroud to speed up his process and make mistakes with the football. Kansas City is in a much better position to do that with Watson on the field than without him. The only question is how close to 100% he'll be in the AFC divisional round after returning from injured reserve.
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