Mike Vrabel's recent comments should have Patriots fans quite worried about what's in store for the future
The New England Patriots may be on the right track toward getting back to the juggernaut they were for over two decades thanks to the recent hiring of Mike Vrabel and last year's drafting of Drake Maye.But, Vrabel's recent comments should have fans a bit concerned when it comes to how he wants things to […]
The New England Patriots may be on the right track toward getting back to the juggernaut they were for over two decades thanks to the recent hiring of Mike Vrabel and last year's drafting of Drake Maye.
But, Vrabel's recent comments should have fans a bit concerned when it comes to how he wants things to go on the offensive side of the ball.
The former Coach of the Year did an interview with WEEI 93.7, one of Boston's biggest radio stations, and brought up a disappointing perception when discussing offensive philosophy in today's NFL.
"You don't have to throw it 50 times," said Vrabel. "You know, I think an interesting stat was, quarterbacks that attempt more than 50 passes a game have won 22% of their games, other than Tom Brady. He's won, like, 70% of the games that he's had to throw for more than 45 times, or something. So if you don't have Tom Brady, then you probably shouldn't throw it 45 or 50 times a game."
Right off the bat, the point is a fallacy in itself. No one wants to throw the ball 45 or 50 times – that's an absurdly high number that's rarely reached. Out of the 3,168 regular season games that have been played since Vrabel became a head coach in 2018, only 157 have featured 50 or more pass attempts – or just 4.9%.
Hell, Joe Burrow led the league with 652 passing attempts in 2024 and that comes out to just 36 pass attempts per game. This rarely happens and if it does, it's because something has gone terribly wrong.
And that's the main point to all of this: Teams that throw that often in a game are most likely trying to mount some kind of comeback or the running game is just simply not working. No one goes into a game saying, "We're about to throw the rock 60 times today, to hell with the ground game!" 43.4% of the losses containing 50+ pass attempts were decided by at least 10 points, as well.
And, on the flip side, teams that run the ball a lot are likely ahead and have more designed runs because they're trying to close out a game. Case in point: 60.2% of the 176 games won where there have been 40 or more rushing attempts feature a point differential of at least 10 points. 86 of them, or nearly half, feature a point differential of 14 points.
It's frankly all a bit odd to hold this line of thinking as an NFL head coach. The good news is Vrabel won't be calling the offense and he's typically had good relationships with the offensive coordinators that have worked under him in the past, so the idea/hope is he won't have his hand in the pot, too often.
But if it ends up that way, then there's certainly a chance things don't work out the way people hope.
