Is Justin Tucker cooked? There's actually more hope for him to bounce back than you'd think
Only one placekicker with at least 20 field goal attempts this season has a lower field goal percentage than Baltimore Ravens living legend Justin Tucker. The five-time All-Pro has missed at least one field goal in half of the games he's played this season, sporting a conversion rate of just 70.4%If his name was Tustin […]
Only one placekicker with at least 20 field goal attempts this season has a lower field goal percentage than Baltimore Ravens living legend Justin Tucker. The five-time All-Pro has missed at least one field goal in half of the games he's played this season, sporting a conversion rate of just 70.4%
If his name was Tustin Jucker, he would be looking for a new team by now. The Ravens are firmly in the AFC Playoff Picture with aspirations of making it further than last year. They won't reach that goal with an unreliable kicker.
Head coach John Harbaugh has assured that Tucker isn't going anywhere for now, showcasing belief that the future Hall of Famer can turn back the clock midseason and reactivate his clutch gene. After the season is another story entirely. The Ravens would have to some dead cap in order to cut Tucker in the offseason, but the choice may not be there's if Tucker's falloff persists for the remainder of the year.
Baltimore has not had ponder the frustrations of kicker struggles for a while. No one ever knows when the mental struggles will come at the position, but when it comes to a case like Tucker's, all hope is not entirely lost.
Let's gather the information we know. Tucker just turned 35 years old last month and has made just over 70% of his field goals this season. The recent names who were that old with that level of inefficiency are quite notable. Sebastian Janikowski, David Akers, Garry Anderson, and Matt Bahr are the only kickers who had similar seasons to the one Tucker is experiencing.
Two All-Pros, a Pro Bowler, and a three-time Super Bowl champion, naturally.
Bahr, the eldest example, retired after a season that wasn't too far from his career average. The average field goal percentages wasn't as high in the 20th century. The other three all had significantly better percentages the following season.
35-Year Old Kickers with Field Goal Percentage Under 71%
| Kicker (Age) | Down Year % | Next Year % |
|---|---|---|
Matt Bahr (39) | 69.7% (1995) | Out of the league |
Gary Anderson (40) | 63.3% (1999) | 95.7% (2000) |
David Akers (38) | 69% (2012) | 79.2% (2013) |
Sebastian Janikowski (35) | 70% (2013) | 86.4% (2014) |
Justin Tucker (35) | 70.4% (2024) | TBD |
All three who played the following year saw a jump of at least 10%. Janikowski was the same age as Tucker in 2013 and made 85.8% of his field goals the four previous seasons. He followed his down year by averaging 83.1% for the final three years of his career. Tucker entered this year at 89% since 2020.
Akers saw the smallest increase but only played one more season while Anderson, the oldest, defied the odds and kept playing for six more years. Clearly that '99 season was a fluke.
Tucker would be the lone exception here should he put out an even worse season next year, and he's the most decorated and accurate of them all.
There was a 50-50 chance Tucker would finish a season making over 90% of his attempts for the first 12 years of his career. Those days may very well be over, but getting back to the mid-80 range? There's absolutely precedent for that.
History tells us what we need to know, but the Ravens will still make this decision with the context in front of them. Tucker raising the standard to an inordinate level is definitely a part of that, but if his time with the Ravens is coming to an end, don't assume his entire career is ending with it.