Brock Purdy's display in loss to Bills should have big impact on 49ers quarterback's looming contract talks
Brock Purdy was hardly the main reason the San Francisco 49ers succumbed to a third successive defeat in Week 13. The quarterback, returning from a shoulder injury after missing the loss to the Green Bay Packers, was placed in an extremely tough spot on the road against the Buffalo Bills. Playing in snowfall that continued […]
Brock Purdy was hardly the main reason the San Francisco 49ers succumbed to a third successive defeat in Week 13. The quarterback, returning from a shoulder injury after missing the loss to the Green Bay Packers, was placed in an extremely tough spot on the road against the Buffalo Bills.
Playing in snowfall that continued throughout the game, Purdy was without his All-Pro left tackle in Trent Williams, who missed a second successive week with an ankle injury, and was in the second quarter robbed of Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey left with a season-ending PCL injury just as the Offensive Player of the Year was beginning to look back to his explosive best.
With the 49er defense, down defensive end Nick Bosa and cornerback Deommodore Lenoir among a host of other absentees, quickly fading after a strong start and struggling markedly to stop the run, Purdy and the offense soon found themselves in a hole after failing to score a touchdown on any of their first five possessions despite crossing into Buffalo territory on each one.
Of those possessions, only the 49ers' opening drive ended in points. While Purdy obviously does not bear responsibility for Jake Moody missing two field goals and Kyle Juszczyk fumbling at the one-yard line, his struggles, set in contrast with another MVP caliber night for Josh Allen, served as the perfect illustration as to why he shouldn't be paid at a considerably high level rate than the Bills star.
Purdy failed to build a rapport with any receiver outside of Jauan Jennings and lost an empty-hand fumble as part of three for the 49ers, the other committed by Deebo Samuel on a kick return. Meanwhile, Allen completed the trifecta of passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns in the same conditions.
As far back as this year's owners meetings, 49ers owner Jed York said he anticipated Purdy and his team asking for a market-setting contract at the game's most important position this coming offseason.
Dak Prescott is the highest-paid quarterback by average annual value, with his. contract with the Dallas Cowboys worth $60 million a year. That is well ahead of Allen's average of $43,005 million, which puts him only 14th among quarterbacks.
Purdy has a lot of leverage on his side, given the likes of Trevor Lawrence and Tua Tagovailoa have each recently received contracts paying them over $50 million a year. Nobody would argue Purdy has not outperformed since taking over as the 49ers' starter late in 2022.
But Purdy receiving a deal pushing $60 million looks an increasingly bizarre prospect in the wake of the loss to the Bills.
For all his undoubted strengths as a decisive quarterback who throws with impressive timing and accuracy and shows consistently strong playmaking ability with his aggression and willingness to make plays outside of structure, Purdy has yet to prove himself to be a quarterback who thrives in the elements.
Understandably coming back from a shoulder issue, Purdy was limited in the snow at Orchard Park. There were zero limitations for Allen, whose string of highlight reel plays was headlined by a remarkable hook and ladder with Amari Cooper in the fourth quarter.
Purdy averaged minus 0.29 Expected Points Added per play against Buffalo. Allen had a sky high EPA per play of 0.65. EPA as a statistic is more reflective of the performance of the offense as a whole, however, when you factor in Allen's completion percentage over expectation of 9.8 and Purdy's of minus 8.1, you get a full picture of just how wide the gap in quarterback play was.
Simply put, there are things Allen can do that are well beyond Purdy, and are beyond most quarterbacks in the NFL. Allen is one of the few aliens in the NFL that occupy a different stratosphere the rest of their contemporaries. Such players are not easy to come across and a host of teams have been happy to follow the market and reward inferior talents for highly admirable play with contracts paying them well above what the likes of Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson have received.
The 49ers will probably end up paying Purdy at a rate higher than Allen, and he is certainly deserving of a greatly inflated salary even after a year that hasn't reached the heights of 2023. There have still been clear signs of development from Purdy as he has operated an offense with much fewer easy buttons than in the Super Bowl season.
But, for a team that needs as much financial flexibility as it can get to keep its core together and address the weaknesses that have emerged amid a deeply trying year, paying Purdy at close to the Prescott salary and putting a gap approaching $20 million between him and Allen would not be a prudent move.
Purdy has demonstrated in the past that he can elevate the 49er offense to new heights, but there are clearly limits as to the levels of adversity he can withstand. Those limits are at a lower level than they are for Allen.
The final pick in last year's draft doesn't need the entirety of the 49ers' 'Death Star' around him to produce strong quarterback play, but it's glaringly evident that the environment in which he has operated this year has been suboptimal. The 49ers should try to reach a fairer compromise in the offseason to ensure there are more resources available to improve the situation, rather than buckling and giving Purdy a deal that, in truth, is not reflective of his standing in the quarterback hierarchy.
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