Why Oregon losing the Big Ten Championship might actually create the Ducks' most meaningful CFP path
It's a new world in college football, with one week of rivalry games remaining before the conference championships and, inherently, the expanded college football playoffs.What this new 12-team field brings to the table is an opportunity for new scenarios to be discussed that we haven't looked at in the past. For Oregon, in particular, there's […]
It's a new world in college football, with one week of rivalry games remaining before the conference championships and, inherently, the expanded college football playoffs.
What this new 12-team field brings to the table is an opportunity for new scenarios to be discussed that we haven't looked at in the past. For Oregon, in particular, there's one glaring question that needs to be answered — should the Ducks even want to win the Big Ten Championship?
It sounds silly — in my heart of hearts, I believe that every game is played to be won, and I believe, without question, that that's the type of coach that Dan Lanning is. Everything that he does is about competing, about taking chances, about winning. His ability to out-coach Ryan Day in their October meeting with Ohio State was huge in establishing Oregon's ability to win the big games. It's a culture thing.
Firstly, nothing about rivalry week can be assumed. For the sake of this exercise, though, we're going to make the assumption that the Ducks get a win on Saturday as Oregon hosts Washington.
Here's the scenario: If Oregon wins the Big Ten Championship game, they'll get a first round bye, drawing the winner of the No. 8 vs No. 9 first round playoff game. If Oregon loses the Big Ten Championship, they'll likely go into the CFP as the No. 5 seed, hosting a playoff game in Autzen against the No. 12 seed.
Would you rather have a bye to play a team like Georgia or Tennessee in order to get to the semifinals, or would you rather have a home game against someone like Arizona State or BYU in the first round, followed by a potential rematch against Boise State in order to get there?
The conversation comes down to quantity vs quality of opponents. Losing the Big Ten Championship game might actually set Oregon up for a better run to the semifinals than if they win it, including getting a playoff game at what will be an otherworldly environment in Autzen Stadium against an inferior opponent.
There's another layer to consider, here. Oregon fans aren't quite sure what to do with themselves in this position of being the best team in the country. If they beat Washington, they'll finish the season as the only unbeaten team in the country, and will finish undefeated since the Chip Kelly team of 2012.
What would a home playoff game do for the excitement of this franchise? The win over Ohio State on October 12th was one of the best environments of the entire college football season. Autzen, despite being a smaller stadium, consistently shows up as one of the loudest, most imposing settings for opposing teams to have to travel to.
This is a season of building. It's the first year in the Big Ten, which has been a massive success. Oregon is recruiting at an elite level, including landing the nation's top wide receiver in Dakorien Moore. Just what could a playoff win in Autzen Stadium do to solidify the raising of the bar that this program is currently undertaking? Any and all success in the postseason will be a stamp of approval, a mark of belonging for the Oregon Ducks, but losing the Big Ten Championship game might give them the easiest, and most meaningful, path to the ultimate goal of winning their first National Championship.
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The hot stove is heating up.
Follow along all year for more Oregon Ducks coverage on A to Z Sports. You can find me on Bluesky @jonhelmkamp.bsky.social, as well as follow our main page @AtoZSports.bsky.social for all the latest news.
