12-Team College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions for Week 9 end with two "Cinderella" seeds in the finals

The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff begins in less than two months. It seems with every passing week a team at the top takes a tumble down the ranks. With just six regular season weeks remaining, teams are already running out of time to prove they deserve a shot at the championship. But which […]

Travis May — College Football Managing Editor
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Ohio State Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins celebrates a touchdown with Ohio State Buckeyes tight end Patrick Gurd as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.
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The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff begins in less than two months. It seems with every passing week a team at the top takes a tumble down the ranks. With just six regular season weeks remaining, teams are already running out of time to prove they deserve a shot at the championship. But which teams will actually make it into this first ever 12-team playoff?

In case you missed our prior installments of this Playoff Bracket Predictions series at A to Z Sports, here's a short synopsis on how this column is put together:

Using a mix of current team records, remaining schedules, large sample data projections, and a few other variables we decided at A to Z Sports to build out weekly playoff predictions to help guide us towards this epic inaugural college football tournament.

And in case you missed the detailed breakdowns this off-season, the "5+7" model to this 12-team playoff means that the five highest ranked conference champions and seven more "at-large" bids as voted on by the college playoff committee earn a spot in the tournament field (as you can see in Chris Vannini's post below, sharing details directly from College Football Playoff representation this spring).

Other key things to know about this new game-changing playoff format:

  • The top four seeds receive a first round bye.
  • Seeds 5-8 host first round playoff games at home against seeds 9-12.
  • The bracket will remain in effect throughout the entirety of the playoff, so there's no re-seeding based on early round outcomes.
  • Quarterfinal and Semifinal game locations will be decided in consideration of historic bowl relationships and seeding.
  • If you'd like the full breakdown on the college football playoff bracket you can find that here straight from the source.

With this new format in mind, it's time to share the A to Z Sports Week 9 predictions for the 2024 12-Team College Football Playoff, breaking down every game in each round based on a heavily data-driven projection of the season.

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First Round

Four Conference Champions on Bye

  1. Oregon (13-0 Big Ten Champion)
  2. Georgia (12-1 SEC Champion)
  3. Miami (12-1 ACC Champion)
  4. Iowa State (12-1 Big 12 Champion)

First Four Matchups

  • #12 Boise State (12-1 MWC Champion) at #5 Ohio State
  • #11 Tennessee at #6 Texas
  • #10 LSU at #7 Penn State
  • #9 Notre Dame at #8 Clemson

First Four Out

  • Texas A&M
  • Indiana
  • BYU
  • Pittsburgh

Group of 5 Conference Contenders

  • Army
  • Navy
  • Memphis
  • Tulane
  • UNLV
12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions for first round matchups

#12 Boise State at #5 Ohio State

Ohio State handles Boise State despite another impressive performance from Ashton Jeanty.

Boise State could very well finish the season 12-1 with their only loss coming to Oregon in what was a competitive game. Ashton Jeanty could be on the verge of breaking Barry Sanders' college football single season records that have held for 40 years coming into this game. He'll give his everything, but against an Ohio State team with 20 potential draft picks on it Boise State will be outmatched.

Ohio State likely won't blow Boise State out of the water as they'll want to keep some new wrinkles in their offense and defense hidden for future playoff matchups, but their rushing attack and seventh ranked defense in the country will be enough to win round one.

#11 Tennessee at #6 Texas

Texas wins the battle for "The Real UT", as their elite defense stifles the Vols' passing attack.

Tennessee has won some ugly games this year, but they have won them nonetheless. Tennessee's defense should allow to them to play a close game against Texas, and James Pearce Jr. will make a few big plays in pass rush. However, the Vols' inability to create a high volume of explosive plays against better defense likely bite them here.

The Texas Longhorns might have lost to a Georgia defense that just introduced a whole new set of pass rush tactics last week, but Steve Sarkisian will adjust and have his offense back up and rolling well before the end of the season. Texas is still number one on defense in yards per play allowed by a wide margin, total yards allowed, and explosive plays allowed per game among all FBS college football teams. They should be able to score and do enough on defense to slow Tennessee's offense down ultimately winning in round one.

#10 LSU at #7 Penn State

The surging LSU Tigers' blend of pass rush and offensive explosiveness upsets Penn State.

Drew Allar continues managing games well with some vertical strikes thrown in this season. Overall Allar has been a Top 10 QB in the nation via the meaningful metrics thanks to his high play-to-play success rates. The pass rush for Penn State has been a nightmare to deal with for opposing defenses in terms of overall pressure too. The sack total hasn't been high, but early pressure on most every snap has led to Penn State allowing the fourth fewest plays of 20+ yards among all FBS teams. The problem is that LSU might have the best pass protecting offensive line in the nation with two future first round picks at tackle in Will Campbell and Emery Jones.

LSU has completely transformed into a different team from the one that lost to USC in week one. Bradyn Swinson has become a potential All-American pass rusher with over a half dozen sacks and an elite pressure rate. Whit Weeks is now one of the best linebackers in the nation. LSU has at least three wide receivers that threaten every portion of the field with Garrett Nussmeier taking the right mix of shots downfield. The Tigers win in a close one after initially struggling against Penn State's elite pass rush.

#9 Notre Dame at #8 Clemson

Clemson's newfound offensive dominance shines in victory over Notre Dame who gets exposed for lacking a passing game.

Quarterback Riley Leonard and Notre Dame's rushing attack has proven to be too much for most teams they've faced, but if they're forced to pass what will happen? Beaux Collins has emerged as a decent target, but the Irish don't have any trump card separation specialists at wide receiver or tight end.

Clemson's top tier defensive front should be able to rattle Riley Leonard with their pass rush. The defensive backs on the back end for the Tigers have been improving all year despite leaning on some younger players there. And Cade Klubnik has completely flipped 180 degrees from last season, becoming one of the best QBs in the nation. Clemson takes a lead and Notre Dame's lack of an aerial attack can't recover.

Quarterfinals

12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions for Quarterfinals

#1 Oregon vs #8 Clemson

Oregon's fast passing game proves to be the perfect play to defeat Clemson's defensive front.

Dillon Gabriel is completing 77% of his passes this season as Oregon's consistently stays on schedule thanks to the savvy veteran quarterback's play. Gabriel's quick processing and accuracy continually frustrates opposing defenses who just can't seem to get the Ducks off the field. Clemson's defensive front has given teams problems when they have time to get to the quarterback, but they won't against Oregon. This might be a high scoring game, but the Ducks won't be stopped in the end.

#2 Georgia vs #10 LSU

Georgia somehow beats LSU in New Orleans playing host of the Sugar Bowl.

If LSU's offense should do enough enough to keep this game close, but Georgia's newfound unstoppable success in the pass rush will give even the Tigers' offensive line some troubles. Carson Beck will need to clean up the mistakes if Georgia wants to win this one, but Georgia likely wins a close battle here between two surging SEC powers playing their best football.

#3 Miami vs #6 Texas

Texas gives Miami a huge wake up call as the Hurricanes' toughest opponent by far this season.

Cam Ward has been the best quarterback in the country this season, averaging over 10 yards per pass attempt, tossing touchdowns on about 10% of his passes, ranking first in QBR, yards per play, and total touchdowns per game. He'll most likely pull off a few "wow" plays that keep this game close early on. However, Texas' defense is smothering, which could lead to some turnovers from Ward. That's happened a couple times when Ward feels he has to force things this year.

#4 Iowa State vs #5 Ohio State

Iowa State proves they don't belong anywhere near the semifinals of the College Football Playoff in a huge loss to Ohio State.

Iowa State has been a fun story this year, finding ways to win every single week. But overall they're barely a Top 30 offense and defense in the nation. Rocco Becht adds enough of a problem with his arm and legs to stress most defenses out, but against an elite team he would get shut down immediately. Ohio State has allowed just over 500 rushing yards all season long, so if they force Becht to pass his lack of accuracy would be exposed. The Buckeyes have two or three defensive backs who will be draft picks next spring and threats to create havoc all along their defensive line headlined by Jack Sawyer in Tyleik Williams. This will be the worst blowout of the playoffs.

Semifinals

12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions for Semifinals

#1 Oregon vs #5 Ohio State

Ohio State isn't losing to Oregon three times this season.

The first matchup between these two colossal forces could have gone either way. Had Will Howard chosen to slide a half second earlier the Buckeyes might have kicked a field goal to win. Every time these teams play it will likely be a close game, but by the time the playoff rolls around Ohio State's offense will be running full steam ahead. Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka should combine for a few explosive plays. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson will have been saving their legs for this very moment to get their revenge when it matters most. Jordan Burch and Derrick Harmon likely pressure Will Howard all game long, keeping this close, but Ohio State's key metrics suggest they're still the slightly better team.

#2 Georgia vs #6 Texas

Texas gets their revenge in epic rematch against Georgia.

Texas picked off Carson Beck three times and limited Georgia to just four yards per play the first time these two SEC teams faced off. The problem was that Georgia's defense was even more dominant than that. This time around the Longhorns will be prepared for the late pre-snap shifts and exotic blitz packages of the Bulldogs. Quinn Ewers will connect on a few big plays (that were available for the making last time) with a hopefully fully healthy Isaiah Bond and his emerging tight end superstar Gunner Helm. Texas wins a close low-scoring game between two fierce defenses.

Championship

12-Team Playoff Bracket Predictions for the Championship

#5 Ohio State vs #6 Texas

When fans envision "Cinderella" stories winning in this new 12-Team College Football Playoff era, they might be thinking about a lower seed winning it all in dramatic fashion. That's possible, but not like they might think. In this case the championship match is between the #5 and #6 seeds, but it's still Ohio State and Texas. Not exactly "Cinderella" teams by any means.

College Football fans everywhere will unfortunately finally have to shut up about Ryan Day not winning the big one after this game. These two teams are very likely both top five offenses and defenses in most key meaningful metrics by year's end thanks to their incredible depth of future NFL stars. However, Ohio State's key advantage likely comes in the run game as they play ball control to combat Texas' explosive play rate. The Buckeyes win it as the #5 seed following a bumpy ride to the College Football Playoff.

First Four Out

In this scenario the "first four out" are Texas A&M, Indiana, BYU, and Pittsburgh.

  • Texas A&M – The Aggies are quietly good at everything, but great at nothing. Their pass protection has improved. Conner Weigman is taking steps forward. Their defense is Top 40 or so by most measures. They just need to win a couple tough games down the stretch.
  • Indiana – Kurtis Rourke just had thumb surgery, so they need to win without him briefly, but when he gets back they'll have a prime opportunity to prove they belong in the playoff against Michigan and Ohio State in November.
  • BYU – BYU's post-game win expectancy suggests they should have just lost to Oklahoma State, and they struggled with Baylor, but they're still undefeated. Their strength of schedule leaves zero wiggle room, but they could sneak into the playoff.
  • Pittsburgh – Eli Holstein has carried this team at quarterback this year, but almost blew it against California. They're still undefeated, but they still have to play Syracuse, SMU, Clemson, and Louisville. Tough sledding ahead.

Group of 5 Contenders

There are five key Group of 5 Conference contenders outside of Boise State:

  • Army – Army has been the best non-power conference team this year, but they're still a service academy with no passing game. The defense has been lights out all year long against their soft schedule, but they'll likely need to beat Notre Dame and/or win the AAC to have a shot at a spot.
  • Navy – Navy might lose their shot this weekend after a loss to Notre Dame, but their run toward 6-0 has been impressive. The defense has been inconsistent against the better teams though.
  • Memphis – They must win out and take down the AAC Championship to have a shot after the loss to Memphis in September. They've almost blown it a couple times, but they're still in it.
  • Tulane – Tulane's path right now flows through staying undefeated in conference play. They have two losses, but their key metrics on offense and defense suggest they're still good enough to potentially win the AAC.
  • UNLV – A loss to Boise State would all but seal their fate, but they could still claw their way back for a Mountain West rematch in the conference championship. Difficult road ahead, but Hajj-Malik Williams has been the best quarterback among all Group of 5 teams.

We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports all season long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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