Cowboys vs 49ers will be defined by weakness vs weakness matchups
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will square off against one another on Sunday Night Football, just like they did last year in Week 5. But, alas, the narrative going into this year's edition of the NFC rivalry is much different for both teams. In 2023, it was a battle of Super Bowl contending juggernauts, […]
The Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers will square off against one another on Sunday Night Football, just like they did last year in Week 5.
But, alas, the narrative going into this year's edition of the NFC rivalry is much different for both teams. In 2023, it was a battle of Super Bowl contending juggernauts, considered two of the top teams in the conference. Now, they enter the game with a combined 6-7 record and with an astounding amount of injuries to key players.
Something's gotta give.
The way I view it, this is a game that will come down to what I'm calling "weakness vs. weakness" matchups. Let's use the run game as an example:
The 49ers defense has been unable to stop the run. On early downs, the Niners rank 22nd in EPA/play versus the run. That would be great news for just about any team in the NFL but the problem for the Cowboys is that their offense ranks 28th in the league running the ball. So yeah, something's gotta give… between a very movable object and a quite stoppable force.
San Francisco has struggled particularly because of its defensive tackles, as A to Z Sports' writer Nicholas McGee recently pointed out: "The 49ers’ weakness is mainly on runs up the middle, with teams too easily able to blow their defensive tackles off the ball with double teams. The Rams in particular had success in that regard and it’s something the 49ers desperately need to remedy."
The Cowboys could exploit this weakness with Tyler Guyton coming back. Although the first-round rookie isn't exactly an upgrade at left tackle, it means the offensive line has much better chemistry with Tyler Smith back at left guard. Double teams are everything when you're trying to run the ball right up the gut and the offense might find some success like it did against the Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 5.
Can Cowboys stop the 49ers in the red zone?
Believe it or not, the 49ers have lost four games. And if you're wondering why that is, you have to look at how they've performed in the red zone. Through seven weeks, they've reached the red zone 31 times, the second-most in the NFL. And yet, they've scored a touchdown in only 45.2% of their red zone drives, which ranks 27th in the league.
The Cowboys defense needs to avoid being the Niners' "get right" game. They allow the second highest touchdown percentage in the red zone.
It's a big challenge for Mike Zimmer's defense, which has struggled in many other areas. One has to wonder what the gameplan will be against San Francisco but it's clear turning up the heat and playing man coverage seems to have worked in the past against the Niners. That's how Kansas City Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo has deterred San Francisco's attack in the past.
These are of course, not the only matchups to watch on Sunday. The Niners themselves can run the ball and the Cowboys will need to bring their A-game in the tackling department to take on running back Jordan Mason. Once again, Dallas will likely need a backup cornerback to hold off the efforts of opposing wide receivers.
But if the team is able to win these two "weakness matchups," they have a chance of pulling off the upset in Santa Clara.
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